Mediaalpha Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.15
| MAX Stock | USD 12.89 0.16 1.26% |
MediaAlpha |
MediaAlpha Target Price Odds to finish below 11.15
The tendency of MediaAlpha Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.15 or more in 90 days |
| 12.89 | 90 days | 11.15 | about 1.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MediaAlpha to drop to $ 11.15 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.85 (This MediaAlpha probability density function shows the probability of MediaAlpha Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MediaAlpha price to stay between $ 11.15 and its current price of $12.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.1 . This indicates MediaAlpha market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, MediaAlpha is expected to follow. Additionally MediaAlpha has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MediaAlpha Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MediaAlpha
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MediaAlpha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MediaAlpha Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MediaAlpha is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MediaAlpha's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MediaAlpha, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MediaAlpha within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
MediaAlpha Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MediaAlpha for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MediaAlpha can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MediaAlpha generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MediaAlpha has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 388.15 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (40.42 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 70.06 M. | |
| MediaAlpha has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Glancy Prongay Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm, Continues Investigation ... |
MediaAlpha Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MediaAlpha Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MediaAlpha's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MediaAlpha's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.3 M |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
MediaAlpha's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MediaAlpha Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MediaAlpha. In general, you should focus on analyzing MediaAlpha Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MediaAlpha Predictive Forecast Models
MediaAlpha's time-series forecasting models is one of many MediaAlpha's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MediaAlpha's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MediaAlpha
Checking the ongoing alerts about MediaAlpha for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MediaAlpha help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MediaAlpha generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MediaAlpha has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 388.15 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (40.42 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 70.06 M. | |
| MediaAlpha has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Glancy Prongay Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm, Continues Investigation ... |
Additional Tools for MediaAlpha Stock Analysis
When running MediaAlpha's price analysis, check to measure MediaAlpha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MediaAlpha is operating at the current time. Most of MediaAlpha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MediaAlpha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MediaAlpha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MediaAlpha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.