Lumen Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 51.05
| LUMN Stock | USD 7.28 0.34 4.90% |
Closest to current price Lumen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Lumen |
Lumen Technologies Target Price Odds to finish over 51.05
The tendency of Lumen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 51.05 or more in 90 days |
| 7.28 | 90 days | 51.05 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumen Technologies to move over $ 51.05 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Lumen Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Lumen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lumen Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 7.28 and $ 51.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.02 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.06 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lumen Technologies will likely underperform. In addition to that Lumen Technologies has an alpha of 3.4568, implying that it can generate a 3.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lumen Technologies Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lumen Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumen Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumen Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumen Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumen Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumen Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumen Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumen Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 3.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Lumen Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lumen Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lumen Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lumen Technologies is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lumen Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (10.3 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.61 B. | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Theres No Escaping Lumen Technologies, Inc.s Muted Revenues Despite A 33 percent Share Price Rise |
Lumen Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lumen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lumen Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumen Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 985 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis
Lumen Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumen Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lumen Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Lumen Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumen Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumen Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lumen Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lumen Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lumen Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lumen Technologies is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lumen Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (10.3 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.61 B. | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Theres No Escaping Lumen Technologies, Inc.s Muted Revenues Despite A 33 percent Share Price Rise |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Lumen Stock
When determining whether Lumen Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Lumen Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Lumen Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Lumen Technologies Stock:Check out Lumen Technologies Backtesting, Lumen Technologies Valuation, Lumen Technologies Correlation, Lumen Technologies Hype Analysis, Lumen Technologies Volatility, Lumen Technologies History as well as Lumen Technologies Performance. To learn how to invest in Lumen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lumen Technologies guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumen Technologies. If investors know Lumen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumen Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share (2.10) | Revenue Per Share 13.927 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets 0.0089 |
The market value of Lumen Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumen Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumen Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumen Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumen Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumen Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumen Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumen Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.