Kbc Groep Nv Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 37.19
| KBCSY Stock | USD 37.19 0.06 0.16% |
KBC |
KBC Groep Target Price Odds to finish over 37.19
The tendency of KBC Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 37.19 | 90 days | 37.19 | about 74.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KBC Groep to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 74.19 (This KBC Groep NV probability density function shows the probability of KBC Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon KBC Groep has a beta of 0.37. This indicates as returns on the market go up, KBC Groep average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding KBC Groep NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally KBC Groep NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. KBC Groep Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KBC Groep
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KBC Groep NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KBC Groep's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KBC Groep Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KBC Groep is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KBC Groep's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KBC Groep NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KBC Groep within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
KBC Groep Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of KBC Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential KBC Groep's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KBC Groep's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 417.2 M |
KBC Groep Technical Analysis
KBC Groep's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KBC Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KBC Groep NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing KBC Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KBC Groep Predictive Forecast Models
KBC Groep's time-series forecasting models is one of many KBC Groep's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KBC Groep's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KBC Groep in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KBC Groep's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KBC Groep options trading.
Additional Tools for KBC Pink Sheet Analysis
When running KBC Groep's price analysis, check to measure KBC Groep's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KBC Groep is operating at the current time. Most of KBC Groep's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KBC Groep's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KBC Groep's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KBC Groep to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.