Golub Capital Bdc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.91
| GBDC Stock | USD 15.24 0.09 0.59% |
Golub |
Golub Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 12.91
The tendency of Golub Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.91 or more in 90 days |
| 15.24 | 90 days | 12.91 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golub Capital to drop to $ 12.91 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Golub Capital BDC probability density function shows the probability of Golub Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golub Capital BDC price to stay between $ 12.91 and its current price of $15.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Golub Capital has a beta of 0.45. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Golub Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Golub Capital BDC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Golub Capital BDC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Golub Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Golub Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golub Capital BDC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golub Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golub Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golub Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golub Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golub Capital BDC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golub Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Golub Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Golub Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Golub Capital BDC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Golub Capital BDC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 1st of October 2024 Golub Capital paid $ 0.3666 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Golub Leads 1.1 Billion Debt Refinancing Effort for Optimizely |
Golub Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golub Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golub Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golub Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 170.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 136 M |
Golub Capital Technical Analysis
Golub Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golub Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golub Capital BDC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golub Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Golub Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Golub Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Golub Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golub Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Golub Capital BDC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Golub Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Golub Capital BDC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Golub Capital BDC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 1st of October 2024 Golub Capital paid $ 0.3666 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Golub Leads 1.1 Billion Debt Refinancing Effort for Optimizely |
Check out Golub Capital Backtesting, Golub Capital Valuation, Golub Capital Correlation, Golub Capital Hype Analysis, Golub Capital Volatility, Golub Capital History as well as Golub Capital Performance. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golub Capital. If investors know Golub will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golub Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 1.59 | Revenue Per Share 3.747 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 |
The market value of Golub Capital BDC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golub that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golub Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golub Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golub Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golub Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golub Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golub Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golub Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.