Evolv Technologies Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.13
| EVLV Stock | USD 4.29 0.16 3.87% |
Closest to current price Evolv long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Evolv |
Evolv Technologies Target Price Odds to finish over 10.13
The tendency of Evolv Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.13 or more in 90 days |
| 4.29 | 90 days | 10.13 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evolv Technologies to move over $ 10.13 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Evolv Technologies Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Evolv Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evolv Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 4.29 and $ 10.13 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.33 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Evolv Technologies will likely underperform. Additionally Evolv Technologies Holdings has an alpha of 0.6953, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Evolv Technologies Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Evolv Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolv Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolv Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evolv Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evolv Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evolv Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evolv Technologies Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evolv Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Evolv Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evolv Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evolv Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evolv Technologies is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Evolv Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (106.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.73 M. | |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings currently holds about 218.5 M in cash with (9.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.51. | |
| Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Evolv Technology Unveils High-Speed Weapons Detection System for Bags and Personal Safety App |
Evolv Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evolv Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evolv Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolv Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 118.7 M |
Evolv Technologies Technical Analysis
Evolv Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evolv Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evolv Technologies Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evolv Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evolv Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Evolv Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Evolv Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evolv Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evolv Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evolv Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evolv Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evolv Technologies is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Evolv Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (106.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.73 M. | |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings currently holds about 218.5 M in cash with (9.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.51. | |
| Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Evolv Technology Unveils High-Speed Weapons Detection System for Bags and Personal Safety App |
Additional Tools for Evolv Stock Analysis
When running Evolv Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Evolv Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolv Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Evolv Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolv Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolv Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolv Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.