Valneva SE Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VALN Stock | USD 6.04 0.17 2.74% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.33. Valneva Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Valneva SE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valneva SE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valneva SE fundamentals over time.
Valneva |
Valneva SE Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valneva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valneva SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valneva SE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valneva SE | Valneva SE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valneva SE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valneva SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valneva SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.86 and 9.14, respectively. We have considered Valneva SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valneva SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valneva SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0385 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1751 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0241 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3286 |
Predictive Modules for Valneva SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valneva SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valneva SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Valneva SE
For every potential investor in Valneva, whether a beginner or expert, Valneva SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valneva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valneva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valneva SE's price trends.View Valneva SE Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valneva SE ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valneva SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valneva SE's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valneva SE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valneva SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valneva SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valneva SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valneva SE ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valneva SE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valneva SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valneva SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valneva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Valneva SE
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Valneva SE position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Valneva SE will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Valneva Stock
Moving against Valneva Stock
| 0.6 | OPT | Opthea | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | FLGC | Flora Growth Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | EXAS | EXACT Sciences Potential Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | DOMH | Dominari Holdings | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Valneva SE could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Valneva SE when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Valneva SE - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Valneva SE ADR to buy it.
The correlation of Valneva SE is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Valneva SE moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Valneva SE ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Valneva SE can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Valneva Stock
When determining whether Valneva SE ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valneva SE's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valneva Se Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valneva Se Adr Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valneva SE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valneva SE. If investors know Valneva will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valneva SE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.53) | Revenue Per Share 2.292 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.18) |
The market value of Valneva SE ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valneva that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valneva SE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valneva SE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valneva SE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valneva SE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valneva SE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valneva SE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valneva SE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.