Vaudoise Assurances Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VAHN Stock  CHF 618.00  4.00  0.64%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaudoise Assurances Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 619.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 320.22. Vaudoise Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Vaudoise Assurances is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vaudoise Assurances Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vaudoise Assurances Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaudoise Assurances Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 619.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.25, mean absolute percentage error of 41.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 320.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaudoise Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaudoise Assurances' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vaudoise Assurances Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vaudoise Assurances Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vaudoise Assurances' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vaudoise Assurances' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 618.41 and 620.52, respectively. We have considered Vaudoise Assurances' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
618.00
618.41
Downside
619.47
Expected Value
620.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaudoise Assurances stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaudoise Assurances stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.8454
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.2495
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0084
SAESum of the absolute errors320.2222
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vaudoise Assurances Holding. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vaudoise Assurances. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vaudoise Assurances

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vaudoise Assurances. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
616.95618.00619.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
598.41599.46679.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
612.06618.78625.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Vaudoise Assurances

For every potential investor in Vaudoise, whether a beginner or expert, Vaudoise Assurances' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vaudoise Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vaudoise. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vaudoise Assurances' price trends.

Vaudoise Assurances Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vaudoise Assurances stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vaudoise Assurances could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vaudoise Assurances by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vaudoise Assurances Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vaudoise Assurances' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vaudoise Assurances' current price.

Vaudoise Assurances Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vaudoise Assurances stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vaudoise Assurances shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vaudoise Assurances stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vaudoise Assurances Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vaudoise Assurances Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vaudoise Assurances' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vaudoise Assurances' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaudoise stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Vaudoise Stock Analysis

When running Vaudoise Assurances' price analysis, check to measure Vaudoise Assurances' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaudoise Assurances is operating at the current time. Most of Vaudoise Assurances' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaudoise Assurances' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaudoise Assurances' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaudoise Assurances to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.