UPM Kymmene Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

UPM Kymmene Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine UPM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UPM using various technical indicators. When you analyze UPM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. Triple exponential smoothing for UPM Kymmene - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When UPM Kymmene prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in UPM Kymmene price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of UPM Kymmene Oyj.

UPM Kymmene Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UPM Kymmene Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 28.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.62.

UPM Kymmene Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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UPM Kymmene Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UPM Kymmene pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UPM Kymmene pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past UPM Kymmene observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older UPM Kymmene Oyj observations.

Predictive Modules for UPM Kymmene

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPM Kymmene Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 25.55 28.81 32.07 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 20.44 23.70 31.69 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 28.31 29.80 31.30 Details

UPM Kymmene After-Hype Price Density Analysis

UPM Kymmene Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

UPM Kymmene Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

UPM Kymmene Hype Timeline

UPM Kymmene Oyj is at this time traded for 28.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.22. UPM is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on UPM Kymmene is about 378.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.03. About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.64. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UPM Kymmene Oyj last dividend was issued on the 13th of April 2023. The entity had 2:1 split on the 20th of March 2003. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UPM Kymmene to cross-verify your projections.

UPM Kymmene Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for UPM Kymmene

For every potential investor in UPM, whether a beginner or expert, UPM Kymmene's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UPM Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UPM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UPM Kymmene's price trends.

UPM Kymmene Related Equities

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Correlation

UPM Kymmene Market Strength Events

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