Unipol Gruppo Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression

UFGSY Stock  USD 12.08  0.24  1.95%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Unipol Gruppo SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 11.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.60. Unipol Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Unipol Gruppo's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the pink sheet is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Unipol, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 71

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Unipol Gruppo's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Unipol Gruppo SpA, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Unipol Gruppo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Unipol Gruppo SpA from the perspective of Unipol Gruppo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Unipol Gruppo SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 11.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.60.

Unipol Gruppo after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Unipol Gruppo to cross-verify your projections.

Unipol Gruppo Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Unipol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Unipol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Unipol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Unipol Gruppo price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Unipol Gruppo Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Unipol Gruppo SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 11.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Unipol Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Unipol Gruppo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Unipol Gruppo Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Unipol GruppoUnipol Gruppo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Unipol Gruppo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Unipol Gruppo's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Unipol Gruppo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.53 and 13.36, respectively. We have considered Unipol Gruppo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.08
11.94
Expected Value
13.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Unipol Gruppo pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Unipol Gruppo pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3286
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1902
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0167
SAESum of the absolute errors11.6048
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Unipol Gruppo SpA historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Unipol Gruppo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Unipol Gruppo SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Unipol Gruppo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.6812.0813.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.509.9013.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.1011.7412.37
Details

Unipol Gruppo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Unipol Gruppo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Unipol Gruppo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Unipol Gruppo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Unipol Gruppo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Unipol Gruppo's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Unipol Gruppo's historical news coverage. Unipol Gruppo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.68 and 13.48, respectively. We have considered Unipol Gruppo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.08
12.08
After-hype Price
13.48
Upside
Unipol Gruppo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Unipol Gruppo SpA is based on 3 months time horizon.

Unipol Gruppo Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Unipol Gruppo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Unipol Gruppo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Unipol Gruppo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
1.41
 0.00  
  0.50 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.08
12.08
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Unipol Gruppo Hype Timeline

Unipol Gruppo SpA is at this time traded for 12.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.5. Unipol is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Unipol Gruppo is about 61.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.58. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.49. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Unipol Gruppo SpA last dividend was issued on the 23rd of May 2022. The entity had 1:100 split on the 13th of April 2012. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Unipol Gruppo to cross-verify your projections.

Unipol Gruppo Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Unipol Gruppo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Unipol Gruppo's future price movements. Getting to know how Unipol Gruppo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Unipol Gruppo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Unipol Gruppo

For every potential investor in Unipol, whether a beginner or expert, Unipol Gruppo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Unipol Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Unipol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Unipol Gruppo's price trends.

Unipol Gruppo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Unipol Gruppo pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Unipol Gruppo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Unipol Gruppo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Unipol Gruppo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Unipol Gruppo pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Unipol Gruppo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Unipol Gruppo pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Unipol Gruppo SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Unipol Gruppo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Unipol Gruppo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Unipol Gruppo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting unipol pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Unipol Gruppo

The number of cover stories for Unipol Gruppo depends on current market conditions and Unipol Gruppo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Unipol Gruppo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Unipol Gruppo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Additional Tools for Unipol Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Unipol Gruppo's price analysis, check to measure Unipol Gruppo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Unipol Gruppo is operating at the current time. Most of Unipol Gruppo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Unipol Gruppo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Unipol Gruppo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Unipol Gruppo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.