Uber CDR Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

UBER Stock   12.25  0.07  0.57%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Uber CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52. Uber Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Uber CDR's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Uber CDR's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Uber CDR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Uber CDR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Uber CDR from the perspective of Uber CDR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Uber CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52.

Uber CDR after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 12.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber CDR to cross-verify your projections.

Uber CDR Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Uber price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Uber using various technical indicators. When you analyze Uber charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Uber CDR - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Uber CDR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Uber CDR price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Uber CDR.

Uber CDR Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Uber CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Uber Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Uber CDR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Uber CDR Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Uber CDRUber CDR Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Uber CDR Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Uber CDR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Uber CDR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.23 and 14.35, respectively. We have considered Uber CDR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.25
12.29
Expected Value
14.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Uber CDR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Uber CDR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0753
MADMean absolute deviation0.1953
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors11.52
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Uber CDR observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Uber CDR observations.

Predictive Modules for Uber CDR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Uber CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.3712.4314.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.8112.8714.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.5512.5713.60
Details

Uber CDR After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Uber CDR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Uber CDR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Uber CDR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Uber CDR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Uber CDR's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Uber CDR's historical news coverage. Uber CDR's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.37 and 14.49, respectively. We have considered Uber CDR's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.25
12.43
After-hype Price
14.49
Upside
Uber CDR is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Uber CDR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Uber CDR Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Uber CDR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Uber CDR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Uber CDR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
2.06
  0.11 
  0.02 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.25
12.43
0.89 
468.18  
Notes

Uber CDR Hype Timeline

Uber CDR is at this time traded for 12.25on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Uber is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 12.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.89%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Uber CDR is about 2901.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.23. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber CDR to cross-verify your projections.

Uber CDR Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Uber CDR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Uber CDR's future price movements. Getting to know how Uber CDR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Uber CDR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NVDANvidia CDR 0.19 1 per month 1.87 (0.04) 3.08 (3.45) 9.47 
NVDANVIDIA CDR(0.55)1 per month 1.87 (0.04) 3.08 (3.45) 9.47 
GOOGAlphabet CDR (CAD Hedged)(0.39)5 per month 1.17  0.16  3.31 (2.23) 9.38 
AAPLApple Inc CDR 0.76 1 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.07 (1.78) 6.51 
GOOGAlphabet Inc CDR(0.63)2 per month 1.16  0.16  3.31 (2.23) 9.38 
AAPLApple CDR(0.52)4 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.07 (1.78) 6.51 
NFLXNetflix Inc CDR 0.48 3 per month 0.00 (0.33) 1.80 (4.00) 10.34 
MSFTMicrosoft Corp CDR 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.25) 1.78 (2.63) 5.02 
MSFTMicrosoft CDR(0.05)4 per month 0.00 (0.25) 1.79 (2.63) 5.02 
AMZNAmazon CDR 0.00 0 per month 1.63  0.01  2.85 (2.70) 13.75 

Other Forecasting Options for Uber CDR

For every potential investor in Uber, whether a beginner or expert, Uber CDR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Uber Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Uber. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Uber CDR's price trends.

Uber CDR Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Uber CDR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Uber CDR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Uber CDR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Uber CDR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Uber CDR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Uber CDR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Uber CDR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Uber CDR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Uber CDR Risk Indicators

The analysis of Uber CDR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Uber CDR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting uber stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Uber CDR

The number of cover stories for Uber CDR depends on current market conditions and Uber CDR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Uber CDR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Uber CDR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Uber Stock

Uber CDR financial ratios help investors to determine whether Uber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Uber with respect to the benefits of owning Uber CDR security.