Trias Sentosa Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TRST Stock | IDR 466.00 4.00 0.87% |
Trias Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Trias Sentosa's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Trias Sentosa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trias Sentosa Tbk from the perspective of Trias Sentosa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trias Sentosa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 465.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 602.52. Trias Sentosa after-hype prediction price | IDR 462.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Trias |
Trias Sentosa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trias price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trias using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trias charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trias Sentosa Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trias Sentosa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 465.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.88, mean absolute percentage error of 180.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 602.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trias Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trias Sentosa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trias Sentosa Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trias Sentosa | Trias Sentosa Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Trias Sentosa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trias Sentosa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trias Sentosa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 463.05 and 468.94, respectively. We have considered Trias Sentosa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trias Sentosa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trias Sentosa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.3062 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1315 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.8774 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 602.5236 |
Predictive Modules for Trias Sentosa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trias Sentosa Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trias Sentosa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trias Sentosa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trias Sentosa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trias Sentosa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trias Sentosa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trias Sentosa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trias Sentosa's historical news coverage. Trias Sentosa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 459.04 and 464.96, respectively. We have considered Trias Sentosa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trias Sentosa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trias Sentosa Tbk is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trias Sentosa Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trias Sentosa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trias Sentosa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trias Sentosa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
466.00 | 462.00 | 0.00 |
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Trias Sentosa Hype Timeline
Trias Sentosa Tbk is at this time traded for 466.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Trias is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Trias Sentosa is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 466.00. About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.77. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Trias Sentosa Tbk recorded earning per share (EPS) of 69.28. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trias Sentosa to cross-verify your projections.Trias Sentosa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trias Sentosa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trias Sentosa's future price movements. Getting to know how Trias Sentosa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trias Sentosa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARTA | Arthavest Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.57 | (5.88) | 24.54 | |
| PSKT | Red Planet Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.89 | 0.14 | 18.52 | (10.00) | 49.27 | |
| JIHD | Jakarta Int Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.95 | 0.04 | 3.92 | (7.27) | 34.79 | |
| IPOL | Indopoly Swakarsa Industry | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.01 | 2.48 | (3.17) | 38.92 | |
| ASLC | Autopedia Sukses Lestari | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.76 | (4.44) | 14.47 | |
| INDS | Indospring Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.45 | 24.48 | (0.88) | 25.00 | |
| KONI | Perdana Bangun Pusaka | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.95 | (14.18) | 40.00 | |
| BIKE | Sepeda Bersama Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.42) | 1.61 | (5.04) | 12.84 | |
| ENAK | Champ Resto Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.48 | (5.47) | 20.19 | |
| NATO | Surya Permata Andalan | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.36 | 0.30 | 24.42 | (10.00) | 48.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trias Sentosa
For every potential investor in Trias, whether a beginner or expert, Trias Sentosa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trias Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trias. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trias Sentosa's price trends.Trias Sentosa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trias Sentosa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trias Sentosa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trias Sentosa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trias Sentosa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trias Sentosa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trias Sentosa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trias Sentosa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trias Sentosa Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trias Sentosa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trias Sentosa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trias Sentosa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trias stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Variance | 8.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trias Sentosa
The number of cover stories for Trias Sentosa depends on current market conditions and Trias Sentosa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trias Sentosa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trias Sentosa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trias Sentosa Short Properties
Trias Sentosa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trias Sentosa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trias Sentosa Tbk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trias Sentosa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trias Sentosa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.8 B |
Other Information on Investing in Trias Stock
Trias Sentosa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trias Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trias with respect to the benefits of owning Trias Sentosa security.