Sterling Construction Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| STRL Stock | USD 156.13 3.55 2.33% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sterling Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 153.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 257.05. Sterling Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Sterling Construction's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sterling Construction's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sterling Construction fundamentals over time.
Sterling |
Cash | First Reported 1995-09-30 | Previous Quarter 480.4 M | Current Value 540 M | Quarterly Volatility 93 M |
Sterling Construction Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sterling Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 153.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.21, mean absolute percentage error of 27.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 257.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sterling Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sterling Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sterling Construction Stock Forecast Pattern
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Sterling Construction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sterling Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sterling Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.60 and 156.57, respectively. We have considered Sterling Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sterling Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sterling Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4339 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.214 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0324 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 257.0524 |
Predictive Modules for Sterling Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sterling Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sterling Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Sterling Construction
For every potential investor in Sterling, whether a beginner or expert, Sterling Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sterling Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sterling. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sterling Construction's price trends.Sterling Construction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sterling Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sterling Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sterling Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sterling Construction Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sterling Construction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sterling Construction's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sterling Construction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sterling Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sterling Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sterling Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sterling Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sterling Construction Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sterling Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sterling Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sterling stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Variance | 9.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sterling Construction to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Sterling Stock please use our How to buy in Sterling Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sterling Construction. If investors know Sterling will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sterling Construction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.315 | Earnings Share 5.18 | Revenue Per Share 67.022 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 | Return On Assets 0.0809 |
The market value of Sterling Construction is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sterling that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sterling Construction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sterling Construction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sterling Construction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sterling Construction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sterling Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sterling Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sterling Construction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.