Shopify Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| SHOP Stock | CAD 180.62 1.95 1.09% |
Shopify Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Shopify's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Shopify's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Shopify fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Shopify's share price is approaching 34. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Shopify, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5078 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4548 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8452 | Wall Street Target Price 221.0235 |
Using Shopify hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shopify from the perspective of Shopify response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Shopify on the next trading day is expected to be 205.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 773.37. Shopify after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Shopify |
Shopify Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shopify price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shopify using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shopify charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shopify Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Shopify on the next trading day is expected to be 205.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.47, mean absolute percentage error of 215.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 773.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shopify Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shopify's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shopify Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shopify | Shopify Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Shopify Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shopify's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shopify's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 202.90 and 208.71, respectively. We have considered Shopify's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shopify stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shopify stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.3193 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.4737 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0595 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 773.37 |
Predictive Modules for Shopify
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shopify. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Shopify After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shopify at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shopify or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shopify, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shopify Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shopify's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shopify's historical news coverage. Shopify's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.89, respectively. We have considered Shopify's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shopify is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shopify is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shopify Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shopify is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shopify backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shopify, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.91 | 18.94 | 1.10 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
180.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Shopify Hype Timeline
Shopify is at this time traded for 180.62on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -18.94, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.1. Shopify is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 5.53%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Shopify is about 95.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.72. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.12. Shopify had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the 29th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shopify to cross-verify your projections.Shopify Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shopify's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shopify's future price movements. Getting to know how Shopify's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shopify may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSU | Constellation Software | 15.35 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.78 | (4.38) | 9.69 | |
| IMP | Intermap Technologies Corp | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.24 | (5.06) | 17.19 | |
| TCS | TECSYS Inc | (0.15) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.14 | (4.20) | 9.69 | |
| LSPD | Lightspeed Commerce | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.83 | (4.22) | 20.88 | |
| KXS | Kinaxis | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.67 | (3.51) | 9.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shopify
For every potential investor in Shopify, whether a beginner or expert, Shopify's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shopify Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shopify. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shopify's price trends.Shopify Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shopify stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shopify could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shopify by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shopify Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shopify stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shopify shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shopify stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shopify entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 86143.79 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2431 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 182.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 182.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.95 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.43 |
Shopify Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shopify's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shopify's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shopify stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shopify
The number of cover stories for Shopify depends on current market conditions and Shopify's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shopify is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shopify's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Shopify Short Properties
Shopify's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shopify's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shopify often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shopify's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shopify's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shopify to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Shopify Stock, please use our How to Invest in Shopify guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.