Shin Etsu Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SHECY Stock | USD 17.83 0.19 1.05% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05. Shin Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Shin Etsu's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Shin Etsu hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co from the perspective of Shin Etsu response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05. Shin Etsu after-hype prediction price | USD 17.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Shin |
Shin Etsu Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shin Etsu Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shin Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shin Etsu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shin Etsu Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Shin Etsu Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shin Etsu's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shin Etsu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.88 and 19.78, respectively. We have considered Shin Etsu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shin Etsu pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shin Etsu pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0471 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2304 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.0546 |
Predictive Modules for Shin Etsu
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shin Etsu Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shin Etsu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shin Etsu After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shin Etsu at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shin Etsu or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Shin Etsu, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shin Etsu Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shin Etsu's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shin Etsu's historical news coverage. Shin Etsu's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.88 and 19.78, respectively. We have considered Shin Etsu's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shin Etsu is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shin Etsu Chemical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shin Etsu Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shin Etsu is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shin Etsu backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shin Etsu, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.95 | 1.10 | 119.09 | 14 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.83 | 17.83 | 0.00 |
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Shin Etsu Hype Timeline
Shin Etsu Chemical is at this time traded for 17.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -119.09. Shin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 46.21%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Shin Etsu is about 0.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -101.26. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.93. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Shin Etsu Chemical last dividend was issued on the 29th of September 2022. The entity had 4:1 split on the 4th of August 2011. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shin Etsu to cross-verify your projections.Shin Etsu Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shin Etsu's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shin Etsu's future price movements. Getting to know how Shin Etsu's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shin Etsu may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GMBXF | Grupo Mxico SAB | 4.22 | 4 per month | 1.72 | 0.16 | 5.24 | (3.16) | 11.20 | |
| BFFAF | BASF SE NA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 4.88 | (3.30) | 11.12 | |
| PTCAY | Chandra Asri Petrochemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PTPIF | PT Chandra Asri | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 115.96 | |
| BASFY | BASF SE ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | 0.02 | 3.01 | (2.63) | 7.04 | |
| GLNCY | Glencore PLC ADR | (1.41) | 19 per month | 1.23 | 0.24 | 4.20 | (2.65) | 11.04 | |
| GLCNF | Glencore PLC | 4.22 | 5 per month | 1.27 | 0.25 | 3.62 | (2.28) | 10.53 | |
| GVDBF | Givaudan SA | (4,372) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.22 | (4.79) | 14.39 | |
| HCMLY | Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR | 4.22 | 5 per month | 0.95 | 0.14 | 2.44 | (1.82) | 6.93 | |
| SKFOF | Sika AG | (220.31) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.76 | (4.03) | 16.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shin Etsu
For every potential investor in Shin, whether a beginner or expert, Shin Etsu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shin Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shin Etsu's price trends.Shin Etsu Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shin Etsu pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shin Etsu could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shin Etsu by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shin Etsu Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shin Etsu pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shin Etsu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shin Etsu pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Shin Etsu Chemical Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 298.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.19) |
Shin Etsu Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shin Etsu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shin Etsu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shin pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Variance | 3.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shin Etsu
The number of cover stories for Shin Etsu depends on current market conditions and Shin Etsu's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shin Etsu is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shin Etsu's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Shin Etsu Short Properties
Shin Etsu's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shin Etsu's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shin Etsu Chemical Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shin Etsu's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shin Etsu's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 T |
Additional Tools for Shin Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Shin Etsu's price analysis, check to measure Shin Etsu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shin Etsu is operating at the current time. Most of Shin Etsu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shin Etsu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shin Etsu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shin Etsu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.