Sagimet Biosciences Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SGMT Stock | 6.35 0.07 1.11% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sagimet Biosciences Series on the next trading day is expected to be 6.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.78. Sagimet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Sagimet Biosciences' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.69) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.91) | Wall Street Target Price 28.1429 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.39) |
Using Sagimet Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sagimet Biosciences Series from the perspective of Sagimet Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sagimet Biosciences using Sagimet Biosciences' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sagimet using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sagimet Biosciences' stock price.
Sagimet Biosciences Short Interest
An investor who is long Sagimet Biosciences may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sagimet Biosciences and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sagimet Biosciences with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.5562 | Short Percent 0.0958 | Short Ratio 4.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 3 M | 50 Day MA 6.5629 |
Sagimet Biosciences Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sagimet Biosciences' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sagimet. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sagimet can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sagimet Biosciences Series. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Sagimet Biosciences Implied Volatility | 0.97 |
Sagimet Biosciences' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sagimet Biosciences Series stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sagimet Biosciences' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sagimet Biosciences stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sagimet Biosciences' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sagimet Biosciences Series on the next trading day is expected to be 6.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.78. Sagimet Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 6.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sagimet Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sagimet contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sagimet Biosciences Series will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0606% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sagimet Biosciences trading at USD 6.35, that is roughly USD 0.00385 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sagimet Biosciences' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sagimet Biosciences Series options at the current volatility level of 0.97%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Sagimet Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sagimet Biosciences' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sagimet Biosciences' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sagimet Biosciences stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sagimet Biosciences' open interest, investors have to compare it to Sagimet Biosciences' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sagimet Biosciences is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sagimet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sagimet Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sagimet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sagimet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sagimet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sagimet Biosciences Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sagimet Biosciences Series on the next trading day is expected to be 6.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sagimet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sagimet Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sagimet Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sagimet Biosciences | Sagimet Biosciences Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sagimet Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sagimet Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sagimet Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.15 and 10.59, respectively. We have considered Sagimet Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sagimet Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sagimet Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0646 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2335 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0335 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.7754 |
Predictive Modules for Sagimet Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sagimet Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sagimet Biosciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sagimet Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sagimet Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sagimet Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sagimet Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sagimet Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sagimet Biosciences' historical news coverage. Sagimet Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.18 and 10.62, respectively. We have considered Sagimet Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sagimet Biosciences is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sagimet Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sagimet Biosciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sagimet Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sagimet Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sagimet Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 4.22 | 0.05 | 1.16 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.35 | 6.40 | 0.79 |
|
Sagimet Biosciences Hype Timeline
Sagimet Biosciences is at this time traded for 6.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.16. Sagimet is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Sagimet Biosciences is about 153.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.19. Net Loss for the year was (45.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sagimet Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.Sagimet Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sagimet Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sagimet Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Sagimet Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sagimet Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARCT | Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings | 0.37 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.53 | (7.02) | 57.84 | |
| HUMA | Humacyte | (0.07) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 6.19 | (8.13) | 19.22 | |
| ASMB | Assembly Biosciences | (27.98) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.88 | (7.73) | 18.53 | |
| ZURA | Zura Bio Limited | 0.14 | 9 per month | 4.02 | 0.19 | 9.82 | (6.25) | 28.57 | |
| VYGR | Voyager Therapeutics | (0.08) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.14 | (6.35) | 19.71 | |
| TRDA | Entrada Therapeutics | (0.24) | 12 per month | 2.04 | 0.28 | 6.98 | (4.00) | 15.00 | |
| FHTX | Foghorn Therapeutics | 0.11 | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0.13 | 9.16 | (5.56) | 31.12 | |
| IMRX | Immuneering Corp | (0.03) | 10 per month | 8.71 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (7.44) | 67.18 | |
| ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences | 0.24 | 8 per month | 3.11 | 0.15 | 7.25 | (5.83) | 46.55 | |
| AVIR | Atea Pharmaceuticals | (0.04) | 9 per month | 3.07 | 0.07 | 4.64 | (3.27) | 17.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sagimet Biosciences
For every potential investor in Sagimet, whether a beginner or expert, Sagimet Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sagimet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sagimet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sagimet Biosciences' price trends.Sagimet Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sagimet Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sagimet Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sagimet Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sagimet Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sagimet Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sagimet Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sagimet Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sagimet Biosciences Series entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sagimet Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sagimet Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sagimet Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sagimet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.21 | |||
| Variance | 27.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sagimet Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Sagimet Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Sagimet Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sagimet Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sagimet Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Sagimet Biosciences Short Properties
Sagimet Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sagimet Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sagimet Biosciences Series often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sagimet Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sagimet Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.2 M |
Additional Tools for Sagimet Stock Analysis
When running Sagimet Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Sagimet Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sagimet Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Sagimet Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sagimet Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sagimet Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sagimet Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.