RIO Tinto Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| RIO Stock | 151.02 0.92 0.61% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of RIO Tinto on the next trading day is expected to be 147.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.22. RIO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of RIO Tinto's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.7175 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.7304 | Wall Street Target Price 146.8625 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
Using RIO Tinto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RIO Tinto from the perspective of RIO Tinto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of RIO Tinto on the next trading day is expected to be 147.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.22. RIO Tinto after-hype prediction price | AUD 151.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
RIO |
RIO Tinto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RIO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RIO using various technical indicators. When you analyze RIO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RIO Tinto Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of RIO Tinto on the next trading day is expected to be 147.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 5.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RIO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RIO Tinto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RIO Tinto Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RIO Tinto | RIO Tinto Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
RIO Tinto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RIO Tinto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RIO Tinto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 145.78 and 149.07, respectively. We have considered RIO Tinto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RIO Tinto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RIO Tinto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6326 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.2172 |
Predictive Modules for RIO Tinto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RIO Tinto. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RIO Tinto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RIO Tinto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RIO Tinto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RIO Tinto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RIO Tinto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RIO Tinto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RIO Tinto's historical news coverage. RIO Tinto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 149.36 and 152.66, respectively. We have considered RIO Tinto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RIO Tinto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RIO Tinto is based on 3 months time horizon.
RIO Tinto Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RIO Tinto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RIO Tinto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RIO Tinto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.65 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
151.02 | 151.01 | 0.01 |
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RIO Tinto Hype Timeline
RIO Tinto is at this time traded for 151.02on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. RIO is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 151.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on RIO Tinto is about 2271.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 151.00. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of RIO Tinto was at this time reported as 53.07. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.33. RIO Tinto last dividend was issued on the 14th of August 2025. The entity had 1.2679:1 split on the 17th of June 2009. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RIO Tinto to cross-verify your projections.RIO Tinto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RIO Tinto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RIO Tinto's future price movements. Getting to know how RIO Tinto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RIO Tinto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSI | Flagship Investments | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.52 | (2.75) | 15.79 | |
| ARG | Argo Investments | 0.04 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.89 | (0.88) | 2.33 | |
| SHG | Singular Health Group | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.14 | (7.14) | 15.10 | |
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | (0.27) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.77 | (3.29) | 11.83 | |
| MFF | MFF Capital Investments | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.70 | (0.03) | 1.30 | (1.38) | 3.41 | |
| GLH | Global Health | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.53 | (6.06) | 25.29 | |
| REG | Regis Healthcare | (0.28) | 5 per month | 1.38 | (0.02) | 2.76 | (2.09) | 12.87 | |
| RHT | Resonance Health | (0) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.52 | (6.00) | 22.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for RIO Tinto
For every potential investor in RIO, whether a beginner or expert, RIO Tinto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RIO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RIO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RIO Tinto's price trends.RIO Tinto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RIO Tinto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RIO Tinto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RIO Tinto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RIO Tinto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RIO Tinto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RIO Tinto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RIO Tinto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RIO Tinto entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 73640.79 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1701 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 153.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 152.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.61) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.92 |
RIO Tinto Risk Indicators
The analysis of RIO Tinto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RIO Tinto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RIO Tinto
The number of cover stories for RIO Tinto depends on current market conditions and RIO Tinto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RIO Tinto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RIO Tinto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RIO Tinto Short Properties
RIO Tinto's future price predictability will typically decrease when RIO Tinto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RIO Tinto often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RIO Tinto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RIO Tinto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.2 B |
Additional Tools for RIO Stock Analysis
When running RIO Tinto's price analysis, check to measure RIO Tinto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RIO Tinto is operating at the current time. Most of RIO Tinto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RIO Tinto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RIO Tinto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RIO Tinto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.