Primorus Investments Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PRIM Stock | 4.10 0.05 1.20% |
Primorus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Primorus Investments' stock price is slightly above 62 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Primorus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 6.586 |
Using Primorus Investments hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Primorus Investments plc from the perspective of Primorus Investments response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primorus Investments plc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.16. Primorus Investments after-hype prediction price | GBX 4.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Primorus |
Primorus Investments Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Primorus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Primorus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Primorus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Primorus Investments Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primorus Investments plc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Primorus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Primorus Investments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Primorus Investments Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Primorus Investments | Primorus Investments Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Primorus Investments Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Primorus Investments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Primorus Investments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.15 and 5.38, respectively. We have considered Primorus Investments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Primorus Investments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Primorus Investments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4275 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1643 |
Predictive Modules for Primorus Investments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Primorus Investments plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Primorus Investments After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Primorus Investments at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Primorus Investments or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Primorus Investments, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Primorus Investments Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Primorus Investments' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Primorus Investments' historical news coverage. Primorus Investments' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.99 and 5.21, respectively. We have considered Primorus Investments' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Primorus Investments is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Primorus Investments plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Primorus Investments Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Primorus Investments is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Primorus Investments backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Primorus Investments, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
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Primorus Investments Hype Timeline
Primorus Investments plc is at this time traded for 4.10on London Exchange of UK. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.06. Primorus is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Primorus Investments is about 160.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.16. About 51.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.0. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Primorus Investments plc recorded a loss per share of 19.76. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of March 2024. The firm had 1:20 split on the 22nd of October 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Primorus Investments to cross-verify your projections.Primorus Investments Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Primorus Investments' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Primorus Investments' future price movements. Getting to know how Primorus Investments' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Primorus Investments may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMET | Capital Metals PLC | (0.05) | 6 per month | 3.03 | (0.01) | 8.64 | (5.36) | 26.86 | |
| CRTM | Critical Metals Plc | 0.22 | 5 per month | 1.51 | 0.27 | 8.77 | (2.70) | 22.78 | |
| MTLN | Metlen Energy Metals | 1.35 | 4 per month | 2.83 | (0.03) | 4.21 | (5.20) | 10.60 | |
| PCT | Polar Capital Technology | 6.00 | 6 per month | 1.37 | 0.06 | 2.46 | (2.22) | 9.68 | |
| 0HCK | Align Technology | (4.06) | 3 per month | 1.45 | 0.13 | 3.63 | (2.69) | 8.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for Primorus Investments
For every potential investor in Primorus, whether a beginner or expert, Primorus Investments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Primorus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Primorus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Primorus Investments' price trends.Primorus Investments Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Primorus Investments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Primorus Investments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Primorus Investments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Primorus Investments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Primorus Investments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Primorus Investments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Primorus Investments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Primorus Investments plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Primorus Investments Risk Indicators
The analysis of Primorus Investments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Primorus Investments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting primorus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4455 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Primorus Investments
The number of cover stories for Primorus Investments depends on current market conditions and Primorus Investments' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Primorus Investments is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Primorus Investments' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Primorus Investments Short Properties
Primorus Investments' future price predictability will typically decrease when Primorus Investments' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Primorus Investments plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Primorus Investments' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Primorus Investments' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 42 K |
Additional Tools for Primorus Stock Analysis
When running Primorus Investments' price analysis, check to measure Primorus Investments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Primorus Investments is operating at the current time. Most of Primorus Investments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Primorus Investments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Primorus Investments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Primorus Investments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.