Papa Johns Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PP1 Stock | EUR 29.25 0.39 1.35% |
Papa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Papa Johns' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 9th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of Papa Johns' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Wall Street Target Price 128.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
Using Papa Johns hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Papa Johns International from the perspective of Papa Johns response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Papa Johns International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.26. Papa Johns after-hype prediction price | EUR 29.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Papa |
Papa Johns Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Papa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Papa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Papa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Papa Johns Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Papa Johns International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Papa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Papa Johns' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Papa Johns Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Papa Johns | Papa Johns Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Papa Johns Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Papa Johns' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Papa Johns' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.33 and 31.17, respectively. We have considered Papa Johns' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Papa Johns stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Papa Johns stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.361 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0837 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.521 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.26 |
Predictive Modules for Papa Johns
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Papa Johns International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Papa Johns After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Papa Johns at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Papa Johns or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Papa Johns, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Papa Johns Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Papa Johns' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Papa Johns' historical news coverage. Papa Johns' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.10 and 30.92, respectively. We have considered Papa Johns' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Papa Johns is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Papa Johns International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Papa Johns Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Papa Johns is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Papa Johns backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Papa Johns, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.92 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.25 | 29.01 | 0.82 |
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Papa Johns Hype Timeline
Papa Johns International is at this time traded for 29.25on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Papa is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 29.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.82%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Papa Johns is about 690.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.33. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.1. Papa Johns International last dividend was issued on the 9th of February 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 30th of December 2013. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Papa Johns to cross-verify your projections.Papa Johns Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Papa Johns' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Papa Johns' future price movements. Getting to know how Papa Johns' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Papa Johns may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DDN | Darden Restaurants | 2.05 | 7 per month | 1.40 | 0.1 | 3.78 | (2.25) | 9.44 | |
| E6U | COFFEE HOLDING | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.17 | (5.11) | 28.32 | |
| RIK | RCI Hospitality Holdings | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.59 | (4.39) | 18.89 | |
| XXA1 | Axcelis Technologies | (2.72) | 8 per month | 3.06 | 0.02 | 6.41 | (5.07) | 17.54 | |
| VTE1 | ASURE SOFTWARE | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.26 | 0.06 | 4.23 | (2.88) | 16.49 | |
| UT8 | Uber Technologies | 2.84 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.69 | (3.86) | 9.05 | |
| X90 | PROBIOTIX HEALTH LS 05 | (0) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.94 | (7.94) | 28.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Papa Johns
For every potential investor in Papa, whether a beginner or expert, Papa Johns' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Papa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Papa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Papa Johns' price trends.Papa Johns Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Papa Johns stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Papa Johns could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Papa Johns by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Papa Johns Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Papa Johns stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Papa Johns shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Papa Johns stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Papa Johns International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Papa Johns Risk Indicators
The analysis of Papa Johns' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Papa Johns' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting papa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Papa Johns
The number of cover stories for Papa Johns depends on current market conditions and Papa Johns' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Papa Johns is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Papa Johns' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Papa Johns to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.