Murphy Oil Stock Forward View - Accumulation Distribution

MUR Stock  USD 32.00  1.62  4.82%   
Murphy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Murphy Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Murphy Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Murphy Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Murphy Oil's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Murphy Oil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Murphy Oil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Murphy Oil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Murphy Oil, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Murphy Oil's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.76)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.3987
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.0791
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.0534
Wall Street Target Price
30.7333
Using Murphy Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy Oil from the perspective of Murphy Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy Oil using Murphy Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy Oil's stock price.

Murphy Oil Short Interest

An investor who is long Murphy Oil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Murphy Oil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Murphy Oil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
27.1907
Short Percent
0.1465
Short Ratio
4.83
Shares Short Prior Month
15.7 M
50 Day MA
31.9806

Murphy Relative Strength Index

Murphy Oil Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Murphy Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy Oil.

Murphy Oil Implied Volatility

    
  0.6  
Murphy Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy Oil's options are near their expiration.

Murphy Oil after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 33.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy Oil to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Murphy Stock, please use our How to Invest in Murphy Oil guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Murphy contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Murphy Oil will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Murphy Oil trading at USD 32.0, that is roughly USD 0.012 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Murphy Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Murphy Oil options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Murphy Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Murphy Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Murphy Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Murphy Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Murphy Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Murphy Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Murphy Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Murphy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Murphy Oil Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Murphy Oil has current Accumulation Distribution of 0.058. The accumulation distribution (A/D) indicator shows the degree to which Murphy Oil is accumulated by the market over a given period. It uses the quote sensitivity to the highest or lowest daily price of Murphy Oil to determine if accumulation or reduction is taking place in the market. This value is adjusted by Murphy Oil trading volume to give more weight to distributions with higher volume over lower volume.
Check Murphy Oil VolatilityBacktest Murphy OilInformation Ratio  

Murphy Oil Trading Date Momentum

On February 17 2026 Murphy Oil was traded for  32.00  at the closing time. Highest Murphy Oil's price during the trading hours was 33.97  and the lowest price during the day was  32.00 . There was no trading activity during the period 0.0. Lack of trading volume on the 17th of February 2026 did not cause price change. The trading delta at closing time to current price is 5.06% .
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
Compare Murphy Oil to competition

Other Forecasting Options for Murphy Oil

For every potential investor in Murphy, whether a beginner or expert, Murphy Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Murphy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Murphy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Murphy Oil's price trends.

Murphy Oil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Murphy Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Murphy Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Murphy Oil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Murphy Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Murphy Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Murphy Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Murphy Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Murphy Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Murphy Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Murphy Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting murphy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Murphy Oil

The number of cover stories for Murphy Oil depends on current market conditions and Murphy Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Murphy Oil Short Properties

Murphy Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy Oil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding144 M
Cash And Short Term Investments377 M

Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis

When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.