MedCap AB Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MCAP Stock | SEK 489.50 7.50 1.56% |
MedCap Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of MedCap AB's share price is approaching 34. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MedCap AB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MedCap AB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MedCap AB from the perspective of MedCap AB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MedCap AB on the next trading day is expected to be 469.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 661.97. MedCap AB after-hype prediction price | SEK 489.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MedCap |
MedCap AB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MedCap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MedCap using various technical indicators. When you analyze MedCap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MedCap AB Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MedCap AB on the next trading day is expected to be 469.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.68, mean absolute percentage error of 171.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 661.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MedCap Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MedCap AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MedCap AB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MedCap AB | MedCap AB Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MedCap AB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MedCap AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MedCap AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 467.25 and 472.08, respectively. We have considered MedCap AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MedCap AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MedCap AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.0956 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.6769 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 661.9671 |
Predictive Modules for MedCap AB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MedCap AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MedCap AB After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MedCap AB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MedCap AB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MedCap AB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MedCap AB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MedCap AB's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MedCap AB's historical news coverage. MedCap AB's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 487.09 and 491.91, respectively. We have considered MedCap AB's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MedCap AB is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MedCap AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
MedCap AB Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MedCap AB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MedCap AB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MedCap AB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.41 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
489.50 | 489.50 | 0.00 |
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MedCap AB Hype Timeline
MedCap AB is now traded for 489.50on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MedCap is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on MedCap AB is about 48200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 489.50. About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of MedCap AB was now reported as 57.83. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 197.02. MedCap AB recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.98. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 27th of September 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MedCap AB to cross-verify your projections.MedCap AB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MedCap AB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MedCap AB's future price movements. Getting to know how MedCap AB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MedCap AB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRED-A | Creades AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.29 | (2.37) | 5.84 | |
| RATO-B | Ratos AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.01 | 3.15 | (2.47) | 13.32 | |
| HOFI | Hoist Finance AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | 0.21 | 4.59 | (2.25) | 20.92 | |
| KARNEL-B | Karnell | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.89 | (2.83) | 11.70 | |
| ORES | Investment AB Oresund | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.54 | 0.25 | 2.08 | (1.24) | 5.23 | |
| SVOL-B | Svolder AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.04 | (2.60) | 8.94 | |
| TRAC-B | AB Traction | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.04) | 1.67 | (1.53) | 4.77 | |
| CS | CoinShares International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 4.48 | (6.39) | 14.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for MedCap AB
For every potential investor in MedCap, whether a beginner or expert, MedCap AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MedCap Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MedCap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MedCap AB's price trends.MedCap AB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MedCap AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MedCap AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MedCap AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MedCap AB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MedCap AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MedCap AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MedCap AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MedCap AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MedCap AB Risk Indicators
The analysis of MedCap AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MedCap AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medcap stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MedCap AB
The number of cover stories for MedCap AB depends on current market conditions and MedCap AB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MedCap AB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MedCap AB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MedCap AB Short Properties
MedCap AB's future price predictability will typically decrease when MedCap AB's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MedCap AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MedCap AB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MedCap AB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 139.7 M |
Additional Tools for MedCap Stock Analysis
When running MedCap AB's price analysis, check to measure MedCap AB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MedCap AB is operating at the current time. Most of MedCap AB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MedCap AB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MedCap AB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MedCap AB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.