Matahari Department Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

LPPF Stock  IDR 1,895  80.00  4.41%   
Matahari Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Matahari Department's stock price is about 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Matahari, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 65

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Matahari Department's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Matahari Department Store, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Matahari Department hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Matahari Department Store from the perspective of Matahari Department response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Matahari Department Store on the next trading day is expected to be 1,804 with a mean absolute deviation of 42.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,610.

Matahari Department after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 1895.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matahari Department to cross-verify your projections.

Matahari Department Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Matahari price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Matahari using various technical indicators. When you analyze Matahari charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Matahari Department price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Matahari Department Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Matahari Department Store on the next trading day is expected to be 1,804 with a mean absolute deviation of 42.78, mean absolute percentage error of 2,579, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,610.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Matahari Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Matahari Department's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Matahari Department Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Matahari Department  Matahari Department Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Matahari Department Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Matahari Department's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Matahari Department's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,802 and 1,805, respectively. We have considered Matahari Department's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,895
1,804
Expected Value
1,805
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Matahari Department stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Matahari Department stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.9656
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation42.7843
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0248
SAESum of the absolute errors2609.844
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Matahari Department Store historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Matahari Department

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matahari Department Store. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,8941,8951,896
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,7062,1582,159
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,7841,8471,910
Details

Matahari Department After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Matahari Department at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Matahari Department or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Matahari Department, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Matahari Department Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Matahari Department's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Matahari Department's historical news coverage. Matahari Department's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,894 and 1,896, respectively. We have considered Matahari Department's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,895
1,895
After-hype Price
1,896
Upside
Matahari Department is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Matahari Department Store is based on 3 months time horizon.

Matahari Department Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Matahari Department is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Matahari Department backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Matahari Department, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.17
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,895
1,895
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Matahari Department Hype Timeline

Matahari Department Store is now traded for 1,895on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Matahari is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Matahari Department is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,895. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 629.56. Matahari Department Store last dividend was issued on the 14th of April 2022. The entity had 1:10 split on the 19th of November 2009. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matahari Department to cross-verify your projections.

Matahari Department Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Matahari Department's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Matahari Department's future price movements. Getting to know how Matahari Department's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Matahari Department may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GJTLGajah Tunggal Tbk 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 2.70 (2.29) 9.26 
RALSRamayana Lestari Sentosa 0.00 0 per month 1.09  0.05  2.87 (1.79) 7.89 
MLPLMultipolar Tbk 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.02) 7.59 (5.34) 25.73 
PBIDPanca Budi Idaman 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 1.21 (0.81) 4.64 
HEROPT DFI Retail 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.24) 3.06 (4.60) 13.04 
MPMXMitra Pinasthika Mustika 0.00 0 per month 0.46 (0.02) 1.51 (1.03) 3.55 
MAPBMap Boga Adiperkasa 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.05) 1.97 (2.79) 8.38 
ARGOArgo Pantes Tbk 0.00 0 per month 3.62  0.1  12.63 (5.82) 39.69 
WOODIntegra Indocabinet Tbk 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 3.89 (3.37) 25.03 
FASTFast Food Indonesia 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 5.88 (5.66) 39.75 

Other Forecasting Options for Matahari Department

For every potential investor in Matahari, whether a beginner or expert, Matahari Department's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Matahari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Matahari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Matahari Department's price trends.

Matahari Department Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Matahari Department stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Matahari Department could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Matahari Department by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Matahari Department Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Matahari Department stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Matahari Department shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Matahari Department stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Matahari Department Store entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Matahari Department Risk Indicators

The analysis of Matahari Department's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Matahari Department's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting matahari stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Matahari Department

The number of cover stories for Matahari Department depends on current market conditions and Matahari Department's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Matahari Department is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Matahari Department's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Matahari Department Short Properties

Matahari Department's future price predictability will typically decrease when Matahari Department's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Matahari Department Store often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Matahari Department's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Matahari Department's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments661.4 B

Other Information on Investing in Matahari Stock

Matahari Department financial ratios help investors to determine whether Matahari Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Matahari with respect to the benefits of owning Matahari Department security.