Grupa KTY Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KTY Stock | 730.00 13.00 1.81% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupa KTY SA on the next trading day is expected to be 774.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,148. Grupa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Grupa |
Grupa KTY Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupa KTY SA on the next trading day is expected to be 774.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.82, mean absolute percentage error of 536.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,148.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupa KTY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupa KTY Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grupa KTY | Grupa KTY Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Grupa KTY Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupa KTY's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupa KTY's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 772.13 and 776.92, respectively. We have considered Grupa KTY's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupa KTY stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupa KTY stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.3959 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 18.8227 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0253 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1148.1829 |
Predictive Modules for Grupa KTY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupa KTY SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupa KTY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Grupa KTY
For every potential investor in Grupa, whether a beginner or expert, Grupa KTY's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupa KTY's price trends.Grupa KTY Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupa KTY stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupa KTY could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupa KTY by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupa KTY SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupa KTY's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupa KTY's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupa KTY Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupa KTY stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupa KTY shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupa KTY stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupa KTY SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupa KTY Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupa KTY's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupa KTY's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Grupa KTY
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Grupa KTY position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Grupa KTY will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Grupa Stock
| 0.5 | ECH | Echo Investment SA Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Grupa KTY could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Grupa KTY when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Grupa KTY - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Grupa KTY SA to buy it.
The correlation of Grupa KTY is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Grupa KTY moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Grupa KTY SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Grupa KTY can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Grupa Stock Analysis
When running Grupa KTY's price analysis, check to measure Grupa KTY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupa KTY is operating at the current time. Most of Grupa KTY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupa KTY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupa KTY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupa KTY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.