K92 Mining Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KNT Stock  CAD 27.64  0.27  0.97%   
K92 Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although K92 Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of K92 Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of K92 Mining fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of K92 Mining's share price is above 70 as of today. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling K92, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of K92 Mining's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with K92 Mining, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting K92 Mining's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.842
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.4553
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.5641
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.1936
Wall Street Target Price
31.9167
Using K92 Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of K92 Mining from the perspective of K92 Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of K92 Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.60.

K92 Mining after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 27.57  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of K92 Mining to cross-verify your projections.

K92 Mining Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine K92 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for K92 using various technical indicators. When you analyze K92 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for K92 Mining is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of K92 Mining value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

K92 Mining Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of K92 Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict K92 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that K92 Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

K92 Mining Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest K92 Mining  K92 Mining Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

K92 Mining Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting K92 Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. K92 Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.55 and 30.93, respectively. We have considered K92 Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.64
28.74
Expected Value
30.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of K92 Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent K92 Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7986
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4614
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0212
SAESum of the absolute errors28.6046
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of K92 Mining. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict K92 Mining. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for K92 Mining

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as K92 Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.3827.5729.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.4829.6731.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.1324.9228.72
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.340.480.42
Details

K92 Mining After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of K92 Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in K92 Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of K92 Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

K92 Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting K92 Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on K92 Mining's historical news coverage. K92 Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.38 and 29.76, respectively. We have considered K92 Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
27.64
27.57
After-hype Price
29.76
Upside
K92 Mining is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of K92 Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.

K92 Mining Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as K92 Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading K92 Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with K92 Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.74 
2.19
  0.07 
  0.33 
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.64
27.57
0.25 
2,433  
Notes

K92 Mining Hype Timeline

K92 Mining is now traded for 27.64on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.33. K92 is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.74%. The volatility of related hype on K92 Mining is about 487.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.97. About 53.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. K92 Mining had 1:3 split on the 25th of May 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of K92 Mining to cross-verify your projections.

K92 Mining Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to K92 Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict K92 Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how K92 Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how K92 Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DPMDundee Precious Metals 1.57 5 per month 1.01  0.33  4.44 (2.24) 8.93 
TXGTorex Gold Resources 0.82 8 per month 2.03  0.17  5.24 (4.28) 12.26 
NGNovaGold Resources 0.27 8 per month 2.44  0.07  5.53 (4.56) 12.28 
WGXWestgold Resources Limited(0.09)3 per month 1.95  0.24  5.21 (3.65) 12.25 
OLAOrla Mining 0.61 7 per month 2.91  0.21  7.54 (5.64) 24.74 
SJStella Jones 1.51 8 per month 1.08  0.10  2.30 (1.94) 7.81 
CGCenterra Gold(0.09)1 per month 1.36  0.31  5.24 (2.90) 10.74 
WDOWesdome Gold Mines(0.52)6 per month 2.37  0.07  3.95 (4.21) 14.33 
PRUPerseus Mining(0.04)7 per month 1.64  0.23  4.01 (2.91) 9.69 

Other Forecasting Options for K92 Mining

For every potential investor in K92, whether a beginner or expert, K92 Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. K92 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in K92. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying K92 Mining's price trends.

K92 Mining Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with K92 Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of K92 Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing K92 Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

K92 Mining Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how K92 Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading K92 Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying K92 Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify K92 Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

K92 Mining Risk Indicators

The analysis of K92 Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in K92 Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting k92 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for K92 Mining

The number of cover stories for K92 Mining depends on current market conditions and K92 Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that K92 Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about K92 Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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K92 Mining Short Properties

K92 Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when K92 Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of K92 Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential K92 Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. K92 Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding240.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments141.3 M

Other Information on Investing in K92 Stock

K92 Mining financial ratios help investors to determine whether K92 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in K92 with respect to the benefits of owning K92 Mining security.