KCE Electronics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

KCE Stock  THB 23.80  0.20  0.83%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KCE Electronics Public on the next trading day is expected to be 23.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.74. KCE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for KCE Electronics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When KCE Electronics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in KCE Electronics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of KCE Electronics Public.

KCE Electronics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KCE Electronics Public on the next trading day is expected to be 23.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KCE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KCE Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

KCE Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

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KCE Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting KCE Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KCE Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.95 and 26.10, respectively. We have considered KCE Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.80
23.53
Expected Value
26.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KCE Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KCE Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1111
MADMean absolute deviation0.6227
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors36.737
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past KCE Electronics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older KCE Electronics Public observations.

Predictive Modules for KCE Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KCE Electronics Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.2323.8026.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.4219.9926.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.5428.1336.71
Details

Other Forecasting Options for KCE Electronics

For every potential investor in KCE, whether a beginner or expert, KCE Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KCE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KCE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KCE Electronics' price trends.

KCE Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KCE Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KCE Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KCE Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

KCE Electronics Public Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KCE Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KCE Electronics' current price.

KCE Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KCE Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KCE Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KCE Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KCE Electronics Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

KCE Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of KCE Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KCE Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kce stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in KCE Stock

KCE Electronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether KCE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in KCE with respect to the benefits of owning KCE Electronics security.