IBio Common Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IBIO Stock | USD 2.25 0.14 5.86% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iBio Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 2.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12. IBio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although IBio Common's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of IBio Common's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of IBio Common fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of IBio Common's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.05) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.32) | Wall Street Target Price 4.72 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
Using IBio Common hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of iBio Common Stock from the perspective of IBio Common response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
iBio Common Stock Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to IBio Common's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in IBio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding IBio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around iBio Common Stock. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iBio Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 2.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12.
IBio Common after-hype prediction price | USD 2.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IBio Common to cross-verify your projections. IBio Common Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IBio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IBio using various technical indicators. When you analyze IBio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IBio Common Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the IBio Common's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2008-06-30 | Previous Quarter 8.6 M | Current Value 28.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 20.6 M |
IBio Common Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of iBio Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 2.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IBio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IBio Common's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IBio Common Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IBio Common | IBio Common Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
IBio Common Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IBio Common's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IBio Common's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 13.13, respectively. We have considered IBio Common's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IBio Common stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IBio Common stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3055 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1794 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1246 |
Predictive Modules for IBio Common
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as iBio Common Stock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IBio Common After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IBio Common at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IBio Common or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of IBio Common, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IBio Common Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IBio Common's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IBio Common's historical news coverage. IBio Common's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 12.79, respectively. We have considered IBio Common's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IBio Common is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of iBio Common Stock is based on 3 months time horizon.
IBio Common Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as IBio Common is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IBio Common backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IBio Common, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.44 | 10.64 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 3 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.25 | 2.15 | 4.44 |
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IBio Common Hype Timeline
iBio Common Stock is currently traded for 2.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. IBio is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.15. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.44%. The volatility of related hype on IBio Common is about 4342.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.90. About 52.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. iBio Common Stock recorded a loss per share of 1.4. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of June 2018. The firm had 1:20 split on the 29th of November 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IBio Common to cross-verify your projections.IBio Common Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IBio Common's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IBio Common's future price movements. Getting to know how IBio Common's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IBio Common may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITRM | Iterum Therapeutics PLC | (0.07) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 9.38 | (8.82) | 28.58 | |
| PLUR | Pluri Inc | (0.07) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.30 | (6.23) | 31.25 | |
| INTS | Intensity Therapeutics Common | 0.02 | 6 per month | 8.62 | 0.09 | 12.20 | (14.04) | 433.59 | |
| RLYB | Rallybio Corp | (0.07) | 6 per month | 2.98 | 0.07 | 8.33 | (5.71) | 21.25 | |
| XCUR | Exicure | (1.02) | 9 per month | 7.40 | 0.08 | 21.22 | (9.76) | 63.80 | |
| KLTO | Klotho Neurosciences | (0.07) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 10.34 | (8.57) | 28.13 | |
| ANTX | AN2 Therapeutics | (0.07) | 3 per month | 3.32 | (0.01) | 5.56 | (4.58) | 32.31 | |
| CVKD | Cadrenal Therapeutics Common | (0.96) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.34 | (8.29) | 58.15 | |
| PSTV | Plus Therapeutics | (0.07) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.93 | (8.82) | 48.30 | |
| BOLD | Boundless Bio Common | (0.07) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.24 | (5.11) | 16.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for IBio Common
For every potential investor in IBio, whether a beginner or expert, IBio Common's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IBio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IBio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IBio Common's price trends.IBio Common Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IBio Common stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IBio Common could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IBio Common by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IBio Common Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IBio Common stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IBio Common shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IBio Common stock market strength indicators, traders can identify iBio Common Stock entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 64587.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.64) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) |
IBio Common Risk Indicators
The analysis of IBio Common's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IBio Common's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ibio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.12 | |||
| Variance | 123.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 60.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 44.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (10.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IBio Common
The number of cover stories for IBio Common depends on current market conditions and IBio Common's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IBio Common is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IBio Common's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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IBio Common Short Properties
IBio Common's future price predictability will typically decrease when IBio Common's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of iBio Common Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential IBio Common's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IBio Common's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IBio Common to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of IBio Common. If investors know IBio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about IBio Common listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.40) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.143 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of iBio Common Stock is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IBio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IBio Common's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IBio Common's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because IBio Common's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IBio Common's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IBio Common's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IBio Common is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, IBio Common's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.