HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HHX Stock | EUR 280.00 10.00 3.45% |
HAMMONIA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's share price is approaching 31. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling HAMMONIA Schiffsholding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 21.583 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.506 |
Using HAMMONIA Schiffsholding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding AG from the perspective of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 280.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.55. HAMMONIA Schiffsholding after-hype prediction price | EUR 279.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
HAMMONIA |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HAMMONIA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HAMMONIA using various technical indicators. When you analyze HAMMONIA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 280.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.19, mean absolute percentage error of 132.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HAMMONIA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HAMMONIA Schiffsholding | HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 276.35 and 284.19, respectively. We have considered HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HAMMONIA Schiffsholding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9963 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.049 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.1894 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 377.555 |
Predictive Modules for HAMMONIA Schiffsholding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HAMMONIA Schiffsholding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HAMMONIA Schiffsholding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HAMMONIA Schiffsholding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's historical news coverage. HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 275.64 and 283.48, respectively. We have considered HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is based on 3 months time horizon.
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HAMMONIA Schiffsholding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HAMMONIA Schiffsholding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.92 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
280.00 | 279.56 | 0.16 |
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HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Hype Timeline
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is currently traded for 280.00on Hamburg Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.44, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. HAMMONIA is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 279.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 98.0%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 280.00. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.64. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. HAMMONIA Schiffsholding recorded earning per share (EPS) of 350.12. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding to cross-verify your projections.HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's future price movements. Getting to know how HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HAMMONIA Schiffsholding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| I9V | TITANIUM TRANSPORTGROUP | (0.01) | 1 per month | 1.33 | 0.18 | 3.80 | (2.99) | 38.04 | |
| H2O | Enapter AG | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 3.43 | (5.78) | 12.65 | |
| 0T8B | TARENA INTL ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 10.42 | (27.21) | 56.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for HAMMONIA Schiffsholding
For every potential investor in HAMMONIA, whether a beginner or expert, HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HAMMONIA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HAMMONIA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's price trends.HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HAMMONIA Schiffsholding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HAMMONIA Schiffsholding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HAMMONIA Schiffsholding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HAMMONIA Schiffsholding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HAMMONIA Schiffsholding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HAMMONIA Schiffsholding AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 280.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 280.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (10.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 31.11 |
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding Risk Indicators
The analysis of HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hammonia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Variance | 16.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 46.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HAMMONIA Schiffsholding
The number of cover stories for HAMMONIA Schiffsholding depends on current market conditions and HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HAMMONIA Schiffsholding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HAMMONIA Schiffsholding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in HAMMONIA Stock
HAMMONIA Schiffsholding financial ratios help investors to determine whether HAMMONIA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HAMMONIA with respect to the benefits of owning HAMMONIA Schiffsholding security.