Ferroglobe PLC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GSM Stock | USD 4.57 0.05 1.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ferroglobe PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 4.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.79. Ferroglobe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ferroglobe PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ferroglobe PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ferroglobe PLC fundamentals over time.
Ferroglobe |
Ferroglobe PLC Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Ferroglobe PLC's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2014-03-31 | Previous Quarter 144.2 M | Current Value 120.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 87.7 M |
Ferroglobe PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ferroglobe PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 4.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ferroglobe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ferroglobe PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ferroglobe PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ferroglobe PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ferroglobe PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ferroglobe PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.92 and 7.48, respectively. We have considered Ferroglobe PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ferroglobe PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ferroglobe PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8475 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0784 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.7854 |
Predictive Modules for Ferroglobe PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ferroglobe PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ferroglobe PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ferroglobe PLC
For every potential investor in Ferroglobe, whether a beginner or expert, Ferroglobe PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ferroglobe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ferroglobe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ferroglobe PLC's price trends.Ferroglobe PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ferroglobe PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ferroglobe PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ferroglobe PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ferroglobe PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ferroglobe PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ferroglobe PLC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Ferroglobe PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ferroglobe PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ferroglobe PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ferroglobe PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ferroglobe PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ferroglobe PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ferroglobe PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ferroglobe PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ferroglobe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ferroglobe PLC. If investors know Ferroglobe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ferroglobe PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share 8.785 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 | Return On Assets 0.047 |
The market value of Ferroglobe PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ferroglobe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ferroglobe PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ferroglobe PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ferroglobe PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ferroglobe PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ferroglobe PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ferroglobe PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ferroglobe PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.