GMéxico Transportes Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GMXTF Stock  USD 1.55  0.02  1.27%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GMxico Transportes SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.75. GMéxico Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GMéxico Transportes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for GMéxico Transportes - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When GMéxico Transportes prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in GMéxico Transportes price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of GMxico Transportes SAB.

GMéxico Transportes Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GMxico Transportes SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GMéxico Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GMéxico Transportes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GMéxico Transportes Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest GMéxico TransportesGMéxico Transportes Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GMéxico Transportes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GMéxico Transportes' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GMéxico Transportes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.52, respectively. We have considered GMéxico Transportes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.55
1.55
Expected Value
7.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GMéxico Transportes pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GMéxico Transportes pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0059
MADMean absolute deviation0.0127
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0091
SAESum of the absolute errors0.75
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past GMéxico Transportes observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older GMxico Transportes SAB observations.

Predictive Modules for GMéxico Transportes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GMxico Transportes SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GMéxico Transportes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.577.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.707.67
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GMéxico Transportes

For every potential investor in GMéxico, whether a beginner or expert, GMéxico Transportes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GMéxico Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GMéxico. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GMéxico Transportes' price trends.

GMéxico Transportes Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GMéxico Transportes pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GMéxico Transportes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GMéxico Transportes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GMxico Transportes SAB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GMéxico Transportes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GMéxico Transportes' current price.

GMéxico Transportes Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GMéxico Transportes pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GMéxico Transportes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GMéxico Transportes pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify GMxico Transportes SAB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GMéxico Transportes Risk Indicators

The analysis of GMéxico Transportes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GMéxico Transportes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gméxico pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in GMéxico Pink Sheet

GMéxico Transportes financial ratios help investors to determine whether GMéxico Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GMéxico with respect to the benefits of owning GMéxico Transportes security.