5E Advanced Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

FEAM Stock  USD 3.57  0.02  0.56%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of 5E Advanced Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 3.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.86. FEAM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although 5E Advanced's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of 5E Advanced's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of 5E Advanced fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength momentum indicator of 5E Advanced's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of 5E Advanced's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of 5E Advanced and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from 5E Advanced's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with 5E Advanced Materials, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting 5E Advanced's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.53)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(2.22)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(1.42)
Wall Street Target Price
8.125
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.58)
Using 5E Advanced hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 5E Advanced Materials from the perspective of 5E Advanced response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of 5E Advanced Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 3.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.86.

5E Advanced after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 5E Advanced to cross-verify your projections.

5E Advanced Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FEAM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FEAM using various technical indicators. When you analyze FEAM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for 5E Advanced Materials is based on a synthetically constructed 5E Advanceddaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

5E Advanced 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of 5E Advanced Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 3.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FEAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 5E Advanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

5E Advanced Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest 5E Advanced5E Advanced Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

5E Advanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 5E Advanced's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 5E Advanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.21, respectively. We have considered 5E Advanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.57
3.57
Expected Value
9.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 5E Advanced stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 5E Advanced stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria79.2507
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1576
MADMean absolute deviation0.2894
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0811
SAESum of the absolute errors11.8635
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. 5E Advanced Materials 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for 5E Advanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 5E Advanced Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.183.589.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.6310.27
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.398.129.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 5E Advanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 5E Advanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 5E Advanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in 5E Advanced Materials.

5E Advanced After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of 5E Advanced at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 5E Advanced or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of 5E Advanced, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

5E Advanced Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting 5E Advanced's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 5E Advanced's historical news coverage. 5E Advanced's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.18 and 9.22, respectively. We have considered 5E Advanced's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.57
3.58
After-hype Price
9.22
Upside
5E Advanced is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 5E Advanced Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.

5E Advanced Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 5E Advanced is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 5E Advanced backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 5E Advanced, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.47 
5.64
  0.01 
  0.03 
10 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.57
3.58
0.28 
18,800  
Notes

5E Advanced Hype Timeline

5E Advanced Materials is currently traded for 3.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. FEAM is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.58 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on 5E Advanced is about 10254.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.54. Net Loss for the year was (31.55 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.18 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 5E Advanced to cross-verify your projections.

5E Advanced Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to 5E Advanced's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 5E Advanced's future price movements. Getting to know how 5E Advanced's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 5E Advanced may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FURYFury Gold Mines 0.05 9 per month 3.90  0.03  9.09 (6.49) 27.18 
GROBrazil Potash Corp 0.02 8 per month 0.00 (0.03) 6.53 (7.21) 23.01 
GOROGold Resource 0.01 9 per month 5.37  0.11  12.86 (8.22) 45.64 
ATLXAtlas Lithium(0.29)8 per month 5.67  0.01  8.66 (9.65) 22.31 
NEXMNexMetals Mining Corp(0.12)10 per month 0.00 (0.11) 6.48 (6.60) 17.85 
ORGNOrigin Materials(0.03)9 per month 0.00 (0.29) 9.52 (8.70) 24.62 
NAMMNamib Minerals Ordinary(0.15)9 per month 4.43  0.09  10.67 (8.41) 27.59 
ALTOAlto Ingredients(0.05)10 per month 3.40  0.25  13.41 (6.27) 32.45 
WWRWestwater Resources 0.01 6 per month 0.00 (0.12) 11.76 (13.41) 28.86 
AECAnfield Energy 0.00 0 per month 5.08  0.04  11.26 (8.72) 26.21 

Other Forecasting Options for 5E Advanced

For every potential investor in FEAM, whether a beginner or expert, 5E Advanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FEAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FEAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 5E Advanced's price trends.

5E Advanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 5E Advanced stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 5E Advanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 5E Advanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

5E Advanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 5E Advanced stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 5E Advanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 5E Advanced stock market strength indicators, traders can identify 5E Advanced Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

5E Advanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of 5E Advanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 5E Advanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting feam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for 5E Advanced

The number of cover stories for 5E Advanced depends on current market conditions and 5E Advanced's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 5E Advanced is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 5E Advanced's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

5E Advanced Short Properties

5E Advanced's future price predictability will typically decrease when 5E Advanced's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 5E Advanced Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 5E Advanced's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 5E Advanced's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingM
Cash And Short Term Investments3.8 M
When determining whether 5E Advanced Materials is a strong investment it is important to analyze 5E Advanced's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact 5E Advanced's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding FEAM Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 5E Advanced to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 5E Advanced. If investors know FEAM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 5E Advanced listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
0.06
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.56)
Return On Assets
(0.34)
Return On Equity
(0.94)
The market value of 5E Advanced Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FEAM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 5E Advanced's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 5E Advanced's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 5E Advanced's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 5E Advanced's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 5E Advanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 5E Advanced is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 5E Advanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.