CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| EDJ Stock | 1.84 0.01 0.55% |
CALTAGIRONE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.533 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using CALTAGIRONE EDITORE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE from the perspective of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE on the next trading day is expected to be 1.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80. CALTAGIRONE EDITORE after-hype prediction price | EUR 1.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CALTAGIRONE |
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CALTAGIRONE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CALTAGIRONE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CALTAGIRONE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE on the next trading day is expected to be 1.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CALTAGIRONE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CALTAGIRONE EDITORE | CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 3.91, respectively. We have considered CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CALTAGIRONE EDITORE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0167 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0623 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0374 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.8012 |
Predictive Modules for CALTAGIRONE EDITORE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CALTAGIRONE EDITORE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CALTAGIRONE EDITORE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's historical news coverage. CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 3.91, respectively. We have considered CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is based on 3 months time horizon.
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CALTAGIRONE EDITORE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CALTAGIRONE EDITORE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.84 | 1.84 | 0.00 |
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CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Hype Timeline
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is currently traded for 1.84on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. CALTAGIRONE is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is about 1280.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.85. About 61.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CALTAGIRONE EDITORE last dividend was issued on the 19th of May 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE to cross-verify your projections.CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's future price movements. Getting to know how CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CALTAGIRONE EDITORE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHK | China Resources Beer | 0.04 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.70 | (3.36) | 11.04 | |
| JJ1 | JJ SNACK FOODS | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.43 | (2.52) | 19.02 | |
| TSI | Tsingtao Brewery | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.47 | (1.76) | 6.16 | |
| FV8 | Fevertree Drinks PLC | (0.1) | 6 per month | 2.81 | 0.08 | 4.44 | (2.69) | 19.50 | |
| 7SNU | Suntory Beverage Food | 0.00 | 4 per month | 1.63 | (0.04) | 2.29 | (2.27) | 9.59 | |
| T6W | THAI BEVERAGE | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.19 | (0.03) | 3.57 | (3.45) | 7.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for CALTAGIRONE EDITORE
For every potential investor in CALTAGIRONE, whether a beginner or expert, CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CALTAGIRONE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CALTAGIRONE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's price trends.CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CALTAGIRONE EDITORE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CALTAGIRONE EDITORE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CALTAGIRONE EDITORE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CALTAGIRONE EDITORE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CALTAGIRONE EDITORE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CALTAGIRONE EDITORE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CALTAGIRONE EDITORE Risk Indicators
The analysis of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caltagirone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CALTAGIRONE EDITORE
The number of cover stories for CALTAGIRONE EDITORE depends on current market conditions and CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for CALTAGIRONE Stock Analysis
When running CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's price analysis, check to measure CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CALTAGIRONE EDITORE is operating at the current time. Most of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CALTAGIRONE EDITORE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CALTAGIRONE EDITORE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.