Diamond Hill Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DHIL Stock | USD 170.66 0.10 0.06% |
Diamond Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Diamond Hill's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Diamond Hill's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Diamond Hill fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Diamond Hill's share price is above 70 as of now suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Diamond, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using Diamond Hill hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Diamond Hill Investment from the perspective of Diamond Hill response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diamond Hill Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 187.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 375.64. Diamond Hill after-hype prediction price | USD 170.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diamond Hill to cross-verify your projections. Diamond Hill Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Diamond price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Diamond using various technical indicators. When you analyze Diamond charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Diamond Hill Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Diamond Hill's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-03-31 | Previous Quarter 49.1 M | Current Value 43 M | Quarterly Volatility 33.5 M |
Diamond Hill Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diamond Hill Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 187.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.16, mean absolute percentage error of 75.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 375.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diamond Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diamond Hill's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Diamond Hill Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Diamond Hill | Diamond Hill Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Diamond Hill Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Diamond Hill's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Diamond Hill's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 181.89 and 193.44, respectively. We have considered Diamond Hill's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diamond Hill stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diamond Hill stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4384 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.1581 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0425 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 375.643 |
Predictive Modules for Diamond Hill
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Diamond Hill Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Diamond Hill After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Diamond Hill at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Diamond Hill or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Diamond Hill, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Diamond Hill Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Diamond Hill's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Diamond Hill's historical news coverage. Diamond Hill's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 164.42 and 175.96, respectively. We have considered Diamond Hill's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Diamond Hill is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Diamond Hill Investment is based on 3 months time horizon.
Diamond Hill Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Diamond Hill is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Diamond Hill backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Diamond Hill, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 5.77 | 0.47 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
170.66 | 170.19 | 0.28 |
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Diamond Hill Hype Timeline
Diamond Hill Investment is currently traded for 170.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Diamond is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 170.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on Diamond Hill is about 72125.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 170.67. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Diamond Hill was currently reported as 66.45. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 17.23. Diamond Hill Investment last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. The entity had 1:5 split on the 26th of September 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diamond Hill to cross-verify your projections.Diamond Hill Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Diamond Hill's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Diamond Hill's future price movements. Getting to know how Diamond Hill's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Diamond Hill may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOR | Source Capital Closed | 0.40 | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.04 | 1.83 | (1.93) | 5.72 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | (0.16) | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 2.04 | (1.71) | 6.78 | |
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.88 | 0.02 | 1.58 | (1.79) | 4.25 | |
| MCI | Barings Corporate Investors | (0.36) | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.02 | 2.28 | (2.31) | 8.35 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 | |
| PSBD | Palmer Square Capital | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.57 | (1.42) | 5.35 | |
| BRR | Columbus Circle Capital | 0.23 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.97 | (12.53) | 43.35 | |
| LEO | BNY Mellon Strategic | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.37 | (0.11) | 0.65 | (0.65) | 2.54 | |
| EIC | Eagle Pointome | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.37 | (2.07) | 5.65 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.02 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Diamond Hill
For every potential investor in Diamond, whether a beginner or expert, Diamond Hill's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Diamond Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Diamond. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Diamond Hill's price trends.Diamond Hill Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Diamond Hill stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Diamond Hill could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Diamond Hill by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Diamond Hill Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Diamond Hill stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Diamond Hill shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Diamond Hill stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Diamond Hill Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Diamond Hill Risk Indicators
The analysis of Diamond Hill's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Diamond Hill's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting diamond stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7491 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.6 | |||
| Variance | 31.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5612 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Diamond Hill
The number of cover stories for Diamond Hill depends on current market conditions and Diamond Hill's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Diamond Hill is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Diamond Hill's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Diamond Hill Short Properties
Diamond Hill's future price predictability will typically decrease when Diamond Hill's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Diamond Hill Investment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Diamond Hill's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Diamond Hill's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diamond Hill to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Diamond Hill. Projected growth potential of Diamond fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Diamond Hill assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 6 | Earnings Share 17.23 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Diamond Hill Investment's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Diamond's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Diamond Hill's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Diamond Hill's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Diamond Hill's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Diamond Hill should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Diamond Hill's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.