Constellium Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CSTM Stock | USD 16.84 0.24 1.45% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Constellium Nv on the next trading day is expected to be 16.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.09. Constellium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Constellium's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Constellium's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Constellium fundamentals over time.
Constellium |
Open Interest Against 2024-10-04 Constellium Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Constellium's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Constellium's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Constellium stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Constellium's open interest, investors have to compare it to Constellium's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Constellium is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Constellium. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Constellium Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Constellium Nv on the next trading day is expected to be 16.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Constellium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Constellium's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Constellium Stock Forecast Pattern
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Constellium Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Constellium's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Constellium's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.57 and 19.11, respectively. We have considered Constellium's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Constellium stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Constellium stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.569 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0467 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3515 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.09 |
Predictive Modules for Constellium
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellium Nv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Constellium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Constellium
For every potential investor in Constellium, whether a beginner or expert, Constellium's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Constellium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Constellium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Constellium's price trends.Constellium Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Constellium stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Constellium could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Constellium by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Constellium Nv Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Constellium's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Constellium's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Constellium Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Constellium stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Constellium shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Constellium stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Constellium Nv entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13245.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8571 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.24 |
Constellium Risk Indicators
The analysis of Constellium's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Constellium's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting constellium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectAdditional Information and Resources on Investing in Constellium Stock
When determining whether Constellium Nv is a strong investment it is important to analyze Constellium's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Constellium's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Constellium Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellium to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Constellium. If investors know Constellium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Constellium listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.286 | Earnings Share 1.21 | Revenue Per Share 46.761 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets 0.0445 |
The market value of Constellium Nv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Constellium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Constellium's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Constellium's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Constellium's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Constellium's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Constellium's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Constellium is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Constellium's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.