Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

COLL Stock  USD 30.09  0.33  1.08%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 30.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.59. Collegium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Collegium Pharmaceutical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Collegium Pharmaceutical fundamentals over time.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 27.04 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 7.14. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 30.1 M. The value of Net Loss is expected to slide to about (30.2 M).
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Collegium Pharmaceutical is based on a synthetically constructed Collegium Pharmaceuticaldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Collegium Pharmaceutical 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 30.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14, mean absolute percentage error of 6.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Collegium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Collegium Pharmaceutical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast Pattern

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Collegium Pharmaceutical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Collegium Pharmaceutical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Collegium Pharmaceutical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.96 and 32.70, respectively. We have considered Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.09
30.33
Expected Value
32.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria83.2611
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.0838
MADMean absolute deviation2.1363
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0663
SAESum of the absolute errors87.589
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Collegium Pharmaceutical 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Collegium Pharmaceutical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collegium Pharmaceutical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.7730.1532.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.6531.0333.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.9732.7038.44
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
30.4933.5037.19
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Collegium Pharmaceutical

For every potential investor in Collegium, whether a beginner or expert, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Collegium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Collegium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Collegium Pharmaceutical's price trends.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Collegium Pharmaceutical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Collegium Pharmaceutical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Collegium Pharmaceutical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Collegium Pharmaceutical's current price.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Collegium Pharmaceutical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Collegium Pharmaceutical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Collegium Pharmaceutical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Collegium Pharmaceutical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Collegium Pharmaceutical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting collegium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Collegium Pharmaceutical is a strong investment it is important to analyze Collegium Pharmaceutical's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Collegium Pharmaceutical's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Collegium Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Collegium Stock please use our How to buy in Collegium Stock guide.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collegium Pharmaceutical. If investors know Collegium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Collegium Pharmaceutical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.49)
Earnings Share
2.34
Revenue Per Share
18.538
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.165
Return On Assets
0.0968
The market value of Collegium Pharmaceutical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collegium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collegium Pharmaceutical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collegium Pharmaceutical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collegium Pharmaceutical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Collegium Pharmaceutical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Collegium Pharmaceutical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.