CF Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CF Stock  USD 85.40  0.55  0.65%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 85.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.42. CF Industries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CF Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At this time, CF Industries' Asset Turnover is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. . The CF Industries' current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 208.8 M. The CF Industries' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 4 B.
Triple exponential smoothing for CF Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When CF Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in CF Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of CF Industries Holdings.

CF Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 85.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 2.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CF Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CF Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CF Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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CF Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CF Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CF Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.67 and 86.74, respectively. We have considered CF Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
85.40
85.21
Expected Value
86.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CF Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CF Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1911
MADMean absolute deviation1.107
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0128
SAESum of the absolute errors66.4196
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past CF Industries observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older CF Industries Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for CF Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83.8585.3986.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
79.4981.0393.94
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.3989.4499.28
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.501.701.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CF Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CF Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CF Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CF Industries Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for CF Industries

For every potential investor in CF Industries, whether a beginner or expert, CF Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CF Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CF Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CF Industries' price trends.

CF Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CF Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CF Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CF Industries Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CF Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CF Industries' current price.

CF Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CF Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CF Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CF Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CF Industries Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CF Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of CF Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CF Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cf industries stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CF Industries to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.82
Dividend Share
1.9
Earnings Share
6.31
Revenue Per Share
32.397
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.076
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.