Burlington Stores Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

BURL Stock  USD 283.70  0.00  0.00%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Burlington Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 285.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 295.94. Burlington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Burlington Stores' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Burlington Stores' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Burlington Stores fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Burlington Stores' Fixed Asset Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 1.85 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 3.68. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 73.1 M this year, although the value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares will most likely fall to about 216.1 M.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Burlington Stores is based on an artificially constructed time series of Burlington Stores daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Burlington Stores 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Burlington Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 285.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.58, mean absolute percentage error of 50.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 295.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Burlington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Burlington Stores' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Burlington Stores Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Burlington StoresBurlington Stores Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Burlington Stores Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Burlington Stores' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Burlington Stores' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 283.79 and 287.45, respectively. We have considered Burlington Stores' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
283.70
283.79
Downside
285.62
Expected Value
287.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Burlington Stores stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Burlington Stores stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.3336
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.4773
MADMean absolute deviation5.5837
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0206
SAESum of the absolute errors295.9375
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Burlington Stores 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Burlington Stores

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Burlington Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
280.72282.55284.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
230.94232.77310.53
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
184.73203.00225.33
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.931.982.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Burlington Stores

For every potential investor in Burlington, whether a beginner or expert, Burlington Stores' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Burlington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Burlington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Burlington Stores' price trends.

Burlington Stores Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Burlington Stores stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Burlington Stores could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Burlington Stores by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Burlington Stores Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Burlington Stores' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Burlington Stores' current price.

Burlington Stores Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Burlington Stores stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Burlington Stores shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Burlington Stores stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Burlington Stores entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Burlington Stores Risk Indicators

The analysis of Burlington Stores' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Burlington Stores' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting burlington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Burlington Stores is a strong investment it is important to analyze Burlington Stores' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Burlington Stores' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Burlington Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burlington Stores to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Burlington Stock please use our How to buy in Burlington Stock guide.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Burlington Stores. If investors know Burlington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Burlington Stores listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.447
Earnings Share
7.27
Revenue Per Share
159.623
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.134
Return On Assets
0.0553
The market value of Burlington Stores is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Burlington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Burlington Stores' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Burlington Stores' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Burlington Stores' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Burlington Stores' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Burlington Stores' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Burlington Stores is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Burlington Stores' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.