Braemar Hotel Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BHR Stock | USD 3.25 0.01 0.31% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Braemar Hotel Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 3.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.76. Braemar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Braemar Hotel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Braemar Hotel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Braemar Hotel fundamentals over time.
Braemar |
Open Interest Against 2024-10-18 Braemar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Braemar Hotel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Braemar Hotel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Braemar Hotel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Braemar Hotel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Braemar Hotel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Braemar Hotel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Braemar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Braemar Hotel Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Braemar Hotel Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 3.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Braemar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Braemar Hotel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Braemar Hotel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Braemar Hotel | Braemar Hotel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Braemar Hotel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Braemar Hotel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Braemar Hotel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.34, respectively. We have considered Braemar Hotel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Braemar Hotel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Braemar Hotel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0047 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.096 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.7573 |
Predictive Modules for Braemar Hotel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Braemar Hotel Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Braemar Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Braemar Hotel
For every potential investor in Braemar, whether a beginner or expert, Braemar Hotel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Braemar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Braemar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Braemar Hotel's price trends.Braemar Hotel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Braemar Hotel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Braemar Hotel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Braemar Hotel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Braemar Hotel Resorts Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Braemar Hotel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Braemar Hotel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Braemar Hotel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Braemar Hotel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Braemar Hotel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Braemar Hotel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Braemar Hotel Resorts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 46060.23 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Braemar Hotel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Braemar Hotel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Braemar Hotel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting braemar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Variance | 15.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Braemar Hotel
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Braemar Hotel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Braemar Hotel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Braemar Hotel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Braemar Hotel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Braemar Hotel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Braemar Hotel Resorts to buy it.
The correlation of Braemar Hotel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Braemar Hotel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Braemar Hotel Resorts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Braemar Hotel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Braemar Stock Analysis
When running Braemar Hotel's price analysis, check to measure Braemar Hotel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Braemar Hotel is operating at the current time. Most of Braemar Hotel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Braemar Hotel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Braemar Hotel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Braemar Hotel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.