Aegis Value Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AVALX Fund  USD 60.15  0.23  0.38%   
Aegis Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Aegis Value's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Aegis Value's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aegis Value Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Aegis Value hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aegis Value Fund from the perspective of Aegis Value response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Aegis Value after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 52.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aegis Value to cross-verify your projections.

Aegis Value Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aegis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aegis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aegis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Aegis Value Fund is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Aegis Value 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aegis Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 59.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aegis Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aegis Value's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aegis Value Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aegis ValueAegis Value Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aegis Value Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aegis Value's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aegis Value's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.73 and 60.89, respectively. We have considered Aegis Value's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
60.15
59.81
Expected Value
60.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aegis Value mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aegis Value mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.5327
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2571
MADMean absolute deviation0.7041
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0126
SAESum of the absolute errors40.135
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Aegis Value. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Aegis Value Fund and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Aegis Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aegis Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.2752.3566.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.1060.1861.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
54.0257.5561.09
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Aegis Value

For every potential investor in Aegis, whether a beginner or expert, Aegis Value's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aegis Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aegis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aegis Value's price trends.

Aegis Value Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aegis Value mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aegis Value could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aegis Value by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aegis Value Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aegis Value's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aegis Value's current price.

Aegis Value Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aegis Value mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aegis Value shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aegis Value mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aegis Value Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aegis Value Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aegis Value's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aegis Value's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aegis mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Aegis Mutual Fund

Aegis Value financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aegis Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aegis with respect to the benefits of owning Aegis Value security.
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