Aether Holdings Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ATHR Stock | 5.44 0.16 2.86% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aether Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17. Aether Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aether Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aether Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aether Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Aether Holdings' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using Aether Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aether Holdings from the perspective of Aether Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aether Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17. Aether Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 5.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aether Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Aether Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aether price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aether using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aether charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aether Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aether Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aether Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aether Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aether Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aether Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aether Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aether Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.71 and 9.07, respectively. We have considered Aether Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aether Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aether Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0237 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1723 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0286 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.168 |
Predictive Modules for Aether Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aether Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aether Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aether Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aether Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aether Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aether Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aether Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aether Holdings' historical news coverage. Aether Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.76 and 9.12, respectively. We have considered Aether Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aether Holdings is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aether Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aether Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aether Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aether Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aether Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.44 | 5.44 | 0.00 |
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Aether Holdings Hype Timeline
Aether Holdings is presently traded for 5.44. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aether is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aether Holdings is about 122666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.44. About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.12. Aether Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aether Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Aether Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aether Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aether Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Aether Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aether Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QH | Quhuo | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 25.50 | (14.29) | 109.99 | |
| SOGP | Lizhi Inc | 0.02 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.82 | (10.01) | 37.07 | |
| API | Agora Inc | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.91 | 0.14 | 4.88 | (3.13) | 12.89 | |
| HKIT | Hitek Global Ordinary | 0.09 | 5 per month | 9.54 | 0.06 | 12.35 | (15.12) | 122.99 | |
| WFCF | Where Food Comes | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.82 | (2.89) | 13.24 | |
| RCT | RedCloud Holdings plc | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.62 | (8.98) | 25.49 | |
| YXT | YXTCOM GROUP HOLDING | 0.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 11.11 | (10.00) | 41.05 | |
| UPLD | Upland Software | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 5.23 | (5.42) | 11.78 | |
| ZENV | Zenvia Inc | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.67 | (6.43) | 15.64 | |
| NUKK | Nukkleus | (0.06) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 13.02 | (12.32) | 37.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aether Holdings
For every potential investor in Aether, whether a beginner or expert, Aether Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aether Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aether. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aether Holdings' price trends.Aether Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aether Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aether Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aether Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aether Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aether Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aether Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aether Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aether Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aether Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aether Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aether Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aether stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Variance | 13.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aether Holdings
The number of cover stories for Aether Holdings depends on current market conditions and Aether Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aether Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aether Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aether Holdings Short Properties
Aether Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aether Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aether Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aether Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aether Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Additional Tools for Aether Stock Analysis
When running Aether Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Aether Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aether Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Aether Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aether Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aether Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aether Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.