Autopedia Sukses Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASLC Stock | 81.00 3.00 3.85% |
Autopedia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Autopedia Sukses' share price is approaching 40. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Autopedia Sukses, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Autopedia Sukses hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Autopedia Sukses Lestari from the perspective of Autopedia Sukses response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autopedia Sukses Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 81.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.00. Autopedia Sukses after-hype prediction price | IDR 81.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Autopedia |
Autopedia Sukses Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Autopedia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Autopedia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Autopedia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Autopedia Sukses Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autopedia Sukses Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 81.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 5.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autopedia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autopedia Sukses' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Autopedia Sukses Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Autopedia Sukses | Autopedia Sukses Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Autopedia Sukses Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Autopedia Sukses' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Autopedia Sukses' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.18 and 83.82, respectively. We have considered Autopedia Sukses' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autopedia Sukses stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autopedia Sukses stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8167 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1639 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8033 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.0 |
Predictive Modules for Autopedia Sukses
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autopedia Sukses Lestari. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Autopedia Sukses After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Autopedia Sukses at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Autopedia Sukses or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Autopedia Sukses, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Autopedia Sukses Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Autopedia Sukses' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Autopedia Sukses' historical news coverage. Autopedia Sukses' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.18 and 83.82, respectively. We have considered Autopedia Sukses' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Autopedia Sukses is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Autopedia Sukses Lestari is based on 3 months time horizon.
Autopedia Sukses Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Autopedia Sukses is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Autopedia Sukses backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Autopedia Sukses, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
81.00 | 81.00 | 0.00 |
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Autopedia Sukses Hype Timeline
Autopedia Sukses Lestari is presently traded for 81.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Autopedia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Autopedia Sukses is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 81.00. The book value of the company was presently reported as 51.95. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autopedia Sukses to cross-verify your projections.Autopedia Sukses Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Autopedia Sukses' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Autopedia Sukses' future price movements. Getting to know how Autopedia Sukses' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Autopedia Sukses may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIKE | Sepeda Bersama Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.40) | 1.66 | (4.60) | 11.83 | |
| PMJS | Putra Mandiri Jembar | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.90 | (1.72) | 7.37 | |
| INDS | Indospring Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.35 | (0.88) | 25.00 | |
| KONI | Perdana Bangun Pusaka | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.02 | (14.18) | 40.00 | |
| JIHD | Jakarta Int Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.73 | (6.52) | 34.79 | |
| BABY | PT Multitrend Indo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 11.76 | (13.41) | 38.56 | |
| SSTM | Sunson Textile Manufacturer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.13 | 0.25 | 24.88 | (10.67) | 39.93 | |
| NATO | Surya Permata Andalan | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.70 | 0.37 | 24.42 | (6.80) | 48.94 | |
| PSKT | Red Planet Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.96 | 0.17 | 16.54 | (10.00) | 48.79 | |
| MGLV | Panca Anugrah Wisesa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.95 | 0.39 | 10.00 | (9.73) | 20.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Autopedia Sukses
For every potential investor in Autopedia, whether a beginner or expert, Autopedia Sukses' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Autopedia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Autopedia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Autopedia Sukses' price trends.Autopedia Sukses Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Autopedia Sukses stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Autopedia Sukses could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autopedia Sukses by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Autopedia Sukses Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Autopedia Sukses stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Autopedia Sukses shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Autopedia Sukses stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Autopedia Sukses Lestari entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Autopedia Sukses Risk Indicators
The analysis of Autopedia Sukses' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Autopedia Sukses' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting autopedia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Variance | 8.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Autopedia Sukses
The number of cover stories for Autopedia Sukses depends on current market conditions and Autopedia Sukses' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Autopedia Sukses is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Autopedia Sukses' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Autopedia Sukses Short Properties
Autopedia Sukses' future price predictability will typically decrease when Autopedia Sukses' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Autopedia Sukses Lestari often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Autopedia Sukses' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autopedia Sukses' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87.9 B | |
| Shares Float | 2.5 B |
Other Information on Investing in Autopedia Stock
Autopedia Sukses financial ratios help investors to determine whether Autopedia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Autopedia with respect to the benefits of owning Autopedia Sukses security.