Angel Oak Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AOMR Stock | USD 9.13 0.01 0.11% |
Angel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Angel Oak's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Angel Oak's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Angel Oak fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Angel Oak's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.322 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3468 | Wall Street Target Price 11.55 |
Using Angel Oak hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Angel Oak Mortgage from the perspective of Angel Oak response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Angel Oak Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 9.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.18. Angel Oak after-hype prediction price | USD 9.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Angel Oak to cross-verify your projections. Angel Oak Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Angel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Angel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Angel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Angel Oak Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Angel Oak Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 9.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Angel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Angel Oak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Angel Oak Stock Forecast Pattern
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Angel Oak Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Angel Oak's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Angel Oak's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.98 and 10.28, respectively. We have considered Angel Oak's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Angel Oak stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Angel Oak stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7015 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0147 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0863 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.18 |
Predictive Modules for Angel Oak
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Angel Oak Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Angel Oak After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Angel Oak at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Angel Oak or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Angel Oak, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Angel Oak Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Angel Oak's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Angel Oak's historical news coverage. Angel Oak's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.99 and 10.29, respectively. We have considered Angel Oak's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Angel Oak is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Angel Oak Mortgage is based on 3 months time horizon.
Angel Oak Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Angel Oak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Angel Oak backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Angel Oak, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.15 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.13 | 9.14 | 0.22 |
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Angel Oak Hype Timeline
Angel Oak Mortgage is presently traded for 9.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Angel is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Angel Oak is about 2271.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.14. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 51.46 M. Net Income was 28.75 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 23.69 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Angel Oak to cross-verify your projections.Angel Oak Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Angel Oak's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Angel Oak's future price movements. Getting to know how Angel Oak's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Angel Oak may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Angel Oak
For every potential investor in Angel, whether a beginner or expert, Angel Oak's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Angel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Angel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Angel Oak's price trends.View Angel Oak Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Angel Oak Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Angel Oak stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Angel Oak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Angel Oak stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Angel Oak Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Angel Oak Risk Indicators
The analysis of Angel Oak's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Angel Oak's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting angel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Angel Oak
The number of cover stories for Angel Oak depends on current market conditions and Angel Oak's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Angel Oak is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Angel Oak's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Angel Oak Short Properties
Angel Oak's future price predictability will typically decrease when Angel Oak's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Angel Oak Mortgage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Angel Oak's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Angel Oak's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.8 M |
Additional Tools for Angel Stock Analysis
When running Angel Oak's price analysis, check to measure Angel Oak's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Angel Oak is operating at the current time. Most of Angel Oak's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Angel Oak's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Angel Oak's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Angel Oak to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.