Allied Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AAUC Stock | 42.62 0.06 0.14% |
Allied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Allied Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allied Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allied Gold fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Allied Gold's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.738 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6512 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3291 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.3175 | Wall Street Target Price 46.3887 |
Using Allied Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allied Gold from the perspective of Allied Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allied Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 42.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.40. Allied Gold after-hype prediction price | CAD 42.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Allied |
Allied Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allied Gold Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allied Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 42.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80, mean absolute percentage error of 1.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allied Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allied Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allied Gold | Allied Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Allied Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allied Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allied Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.85 and 45.39, respectively. We have considered Allied Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allied Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allied Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5589 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4864 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0248 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.4 |
Predictive Modules for Allied Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allied Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allied Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allied Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allied Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allied Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allied Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allied Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allied Gold's historical news coverage. Allied Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.94 and 45.48, respectively. We have considered Allied Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allied Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allied Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allied Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allied Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allied Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allied Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.03 | 2.77 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.62 | 42.71 | 0.21 |
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Allied Gold Hype Timeline
Allied Gold is presently traded for 42.62on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Allied is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.03%. The volatility of related hype on Allied Gold is about 937.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.92. The company reported the revenue of 730.38 M. Net Loss for the year was (119.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 426.88 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allied Gold to cross-verify your projections.Allied Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allied Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allied Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Allied Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allied Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAU | Montage Gold Corp | (0.12) | 9 per month | 2.53 | 0.28 | 7.74 | (3.31) | 23.31 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | (0.21) | 6 per month | 2.99 | 0.28 | 6.34 | (4.69) | 22.08 | |
| IE | Ivanhoe Energy | 1.03 | 4 per month | 4.69 | 0.09 | 8.04 | (6.08) | 26.80 | |
| WDO | Wesdome Gold Mines | (0.23) | 9 per month | 2.74 | 0.03 | 3.95 | (4.21) | 16.11 | |
| ARIS | Aris Mining | (0.08) | 10 per month | 3.45 | 0.24 | 6.38 | (3.84) | 25.00 | |
| CG | Centerra Gold | 0.08 | 5 per month | 2.78 | 0.19 | 5.10 | (3.44) | 21.48 | |
| CIA | Champion Iron | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.87 | 0.01 | 3.78 | (2.75) | 11.75 | |
| AII | Almonty Industries | 1.63 | 8 per month | 3.55 | 0.23 | 9.89 | (6.83) | 22.41 | |
| SEA | Seabridge Gold | 0.51 | 9 per month | 3.84 | 0.10 | 6.29 | (4.77) | 27.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allied Gold
For every potential investor in Allied, whether a beginner or expert, Allied Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allied Gold's price trends.Allied Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allied Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allied Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allied Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allied Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allied Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allied Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allied Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allied Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allied Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allied Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allied Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allied Gold
The number of cover stories for Allied Gold depends on current market conditions and Allied Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allied Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allied Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Allied Gold Short Properties
Allied Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Allied Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allied Gold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allied Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allied Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 225 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allied Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Allied Stock, please use our How to Invest in Allied Gold guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.