Zegona Communications Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 1ZG Stock | 18.20 0.40 2.25% |
Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Zegona Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Zegona Communications plc from the perspective of Zegona Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zegona Communications plc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.54. Zegona Communications after-hype prediction price | EUR 18.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Zegona |
Zegona Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Zegona price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Zegona using various technical indicators. When you analyze Zegona charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zegona Communications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zegona Communications plc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zegona Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zegona Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zegona Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
Zegona Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zegona Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zegona Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.43 and 22.05, respectively. We have considered Zegona Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zegona Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zegona Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9189 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4679 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0333 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.5424 |
Predictive Modules for Zegona Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zegona Communications plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Zegona Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Zegona Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Zegona Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Zegona Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Zegona Communications Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Zegona Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Zegona Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Zegona Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.20 | 18.20 | 0.00 |
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Zegona Communications Hype Timeline
Zegona Communications plc is presently traded for 18.20on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Zegona is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.71%. %. The volatility of related hype on Zegona Communications is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.20. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.Zegona Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Zegona Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Zegona Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Zegona Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Zegona Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.61 | (2.29) | 9.13 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.72 | (2.46) | 10.11 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.75 | (2.06) | 9.59 | |
| MSF | Microsoft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.02 | (2.68) | 5.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Zegona Communications
For every potential investor in Zegona, whether a beginner or expert, Zegona Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zegona Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zegona. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zegona Communications' price trends.Zegona Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zegona Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zegona Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zegona Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zegona Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zegona Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zegona Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zegona Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zegona Communications plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zegona Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zegona Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zegona Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zegona stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Variance | 7.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Zegona Communications
The number of cover stories for Zegona Communications depends on current market conditions and Zegona Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Zegona Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Zegona Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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