Vista Oil Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VIST Stock | USD 46.53 0.85 1.86% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vista Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 46.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.84. Vista Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vista Oil stock prices and determine the direction of Vista Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vista Oil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Vista Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vista Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vista Oil fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Oil to cross-verify your projections. Vista |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Vista Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vista Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vista Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vista Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vista Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vista Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vista Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vista. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Vista Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vista Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vista Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Vista Oil works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Vista Oil Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vista Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 46.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vista Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vista Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vista Oil | Vista Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vista Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vista Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vista Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.73 and 48.74, respectively. We have considered Vista Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vista Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vista Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1156 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6583 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.8388 |
Predictive Modules for Vista Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vista Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vista Oil
For every potential investor in Vista, whether a beginner or expert, Vista Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vista Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vista. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vista Oil's price trends.View Vista Oil Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vista Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vista Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vista Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vista Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vista Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vista Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vista Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vista Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.43 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.85 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.95 |
Vista Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vista Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vista Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vista stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Vista Oil Gas is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Vista Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Vista Stock analysis
When running Vista Oil's price analysis, check to measure Vista Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vista Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Vista Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vista Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vista Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vista Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vista Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vista Oil. If investors know Vista will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vista Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Earnings Share 3.36 | Revenue Per Share 12.28 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 | Return On Assets 0.1316 |
The market value of Vista Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vista that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vista Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vista Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vista Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vista Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vista Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vista Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vista Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.