Litecoin Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LTC Crypto | USD 81.44 0.25 0.31% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Litecoin on the next trading day is expected to be 85.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 277.04. Litecoin Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Litecoin crypto prices and determine the direction of Litecoin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Litecoin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Litecoin to cross-verify your projections. Litecoin |
Most investors in Litecoin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, crypto markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Litecoin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Litecoin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Litecoin is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Litecoin value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Litecoin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Litecoin on the next trading day is expected to be 85.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.54, mean absolute percentage error of 34.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 277.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Litecoin Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Litecoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Litecoin Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern
Litecoin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Litecoin's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Litecoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.98 and 90.17, respectively. We have considered Litecoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Litecoin crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Litecoin crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6644 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.5416 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0524 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 277.0351 |
Predictive Modules for Litecoin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Litecoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the crypto coin market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the crypto coin market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Litecoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Litecoin
For every potential investor in Litecoin, whether a beginner or expert, Litecoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Litecoin Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Litecoin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Litecoin's price trends.Litecoin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Litecoin crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Litecoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Litecoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Litecoin Technical and Predictive Analytics
The crypto coin market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Litecoin's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Litecoin's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Litecoin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Litecoin crypto coin reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Litecoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Litecoin crypto coin market strength indicators, traders can identify Litecoin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Litecoin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Litecoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Litecoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting litecoin crypto coin prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.1 | |||
| Variance | 25.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Litecoin to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Litecoin information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Litecoin's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.