Fresh Del Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FDP Stock | USD 25.84 0.22 0.86% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fresh Del Monte on the next trading day is expected to be 26.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.26. Fresh Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fresh Del stock prices and determine the direction of Fresh Del Monte's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fresh Del's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fresh Del's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fresh Del's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fresh Del fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fresh Del to cross-verify your projections. Fresh |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Fresh Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fresh Del's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fresh Del's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fresh Del stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fresh Del's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fresh Del's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fresh Del is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fresh. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fresh Del cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fresh Del's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fresh Del's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Fresh Del is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fresh Del Monte value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Fresh Del Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fresh Del Monte on the next trading day is expected to be 26.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fresh Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fresh Del's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fresh Del Stock Forecast Pattern
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Fresh Del Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fresh Del's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fresh Del's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.20 and 27.74, respectively. We have considered Fresh Del's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fresh Del stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fresh Del stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6924 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2338 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.2619 |
Predictive Modules for Fresh Del
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fresh Del Monte. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fresh Del's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fresh Del
For every potential investor in Fresh, whether a beginner or expert, Fresh Del's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fresh Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fresh. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fresh Del's price trends.Fresh Del Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fresh Del stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fresh Del could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fresh Del by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fresh Del Monte Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fresh Del's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fresh Del's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fresh Del Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fresh Del stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fresh Del shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fresh Del stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fresh Del Monte entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fresh Del Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fresh Del's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fresh Del's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fresh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9484 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fresh Del in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fresh Del's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fresh Del options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fresh Del to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fresh Del Monte information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fresh Del's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Fresh Stock analysis
When running Fresh Del's price analysis, check to measure Fresh Del's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fresh Del is operating at the current time. Most of Fresh Del's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fresh Del's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fresh Del's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fresh Del to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fresh Del's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fresh Del. If investors know Fresh will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fresh Del listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Dividend Share 0.75 | Earnings Share (0.24) | Revenue Per Share 90.054 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Fresh Del Monte is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fresh that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fresh Del's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fresh Del's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fresh Del's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fresh Del's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fresh Del's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fresh Del is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fresh Del's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.