Tofas Turk (Turkey) Market Value
| TOASO Stock | TRY 198.00 3.20 1.59% |
| Symbol | Tofas |
Tofas Turk 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tofas Turk's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tofas Turk.
| 12/07/2023 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tofas Turk on December 7, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tofas Turk Otomobil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tofas Turk over 360 days. Tofas Turk is related to or competes with Ford Otomotiv, Eregli Demir, Turkiye Petrol, Turkiye Sise, and Arcelik AS. Tofas Trk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S. manufactures and sells passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Turkey More
Tofas Turk Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tofas Turk's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tofas Turk Otomobil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.51) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.18 |
Tofas Turk Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tofas Turk's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tofas Turk's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tofas Turk historical prices to predict the future Tofas Turk's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.64) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.43) |
Tofas Turk Otomobil Backtested Returns
Tofas Turk Otomobil owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which indicates the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Tofas Turk Otomobil exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Tofas Turk's Variance of 6.0, risk adjusted performance of (0.06), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,092) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.54, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Tofas Turk's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tofas Turk is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Tofas Turk Otomobil has a negative expected return of -0.29%. Please make sure to validate Tofas Turk's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and price action indicator , to decide if Tofas Turk Otomobil performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.89 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Tofas Turk Otomobil has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tofas Turk time series from 7th of December 2023 to 4th of June 2024 and 4th of June 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tofas Turk Otomobil price movement. The serial correlation of -0.89 indicates that approximately 89.0% of current Tofas Turk price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.89 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.9 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2496.87 |
Tofas Turk Otomobil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tofas Turk stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tofas Turk's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tofas Turk returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tofas Turk has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tofas Turk regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tofas Turk stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tofas Turk stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tofas Turk stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tofas Turk Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tofas Turk's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tofas Turk stock have on its future price. Tofas Turk autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tofas Turk autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tofas Turk stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tofas Turk Otomobil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Tofas Stock
Tofas Turk financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tofas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tofas with respect to the benefits of owning Tofas Turk security.