Northern Oil Gas Stock Market Value
| NOG Stock | USD 28.07 0.91 3.35% |
| Symbol | Northern |
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Northern Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Northern Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Northern Oil.
| 04/25/2025 |
| 07/24/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Northern Oil on April 25, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Northern Oil Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in Northern Oil over 90 days. Northern Oil is related to or competes with Magnolia Oil, Civitas Resources, SM Energy, Evolution Petroleum, Matador Resources, and Comstock Resources. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, develo... More
Northern Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Northern Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Northern Oil Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0359 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.69 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.24 |
Northern Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Northern Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Northern Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Northern Oil historical prices to predict the future Northern Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1081 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1472 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.46) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.041 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4156 |
Northern Oil Gas Backtested Returns
Northern Oil appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Northern Oil Gas has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the firm had a 0.12 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Northern Oil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Northern Oil's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1081, mean deviation of 2.23, and Downside Deviation of 2.48 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Northern Oil holds a performance score of 9. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.81, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Northern Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Northern Oil is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Northern Oil's expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Northern Oil's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.6 |
Good reverse predictability
Northern Oil Gas has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Northern Oil time series from 25th of April 2025 to 9th of June 2025 and 9th of June 2025 to 24th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Northern Oil Gas price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Northern Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.97 |
Northern Oil Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Northern Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Northern Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Northern Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Northern Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Northern Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Northern Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Northern Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Northern Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Northern Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Northern Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Northern Oil stock have on its future price. Northern Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Northern Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Northern Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Northern Oil Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Northern Oil Correlation, Northern Oil Volatility and Northern Oil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Northern Oil. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Northern Oil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.