JAPAUL OIL (Nigeria) Market Value
| JAPAULGOLD | 2.77 0.12 4.15% |
| Symbol | JAPAUL |
JAPAUL OIL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to JAPAUL OIL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of JAPAUL OIL.
| 05/02/2025 |
| 07/31/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in JAPAUL OIL on May 2, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding JAPAUL OIL MARITIME or generate 0.0% return on investment in JAPAUL OIL over 90 days.
JAPAUL OIL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure JAPAUL OIL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess JAPAUL OIL MARITIME upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0805 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.78 |
JAPAUL OIL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for JAPAUL OIL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as JAPAUL OIL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use JAPAUL OIL historical prices to predict the future JAPAUL OIL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0973 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3352 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0799 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4401 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JAPAUL OIL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
JAPAUL OIL MARITIME Backtested Returns
JAPAUL OIL appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. JAPAUL OIL MARITIME holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.15, which attests that the company had a 0.15 % return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. By examining JAPAUL OIL's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.65% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize JAPAUL OIL's market risk adjusted performance of 0.4501, and Semi Deviation of 3.49 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, JAPAUL OIL holds a performance score of 11. The firm retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.15, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, JAPAUL OIL will likely underperform. Please check JAPAUL OIL's expected short fall, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether JAPAUL OIL's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.08 |
Virtually no predictability
JAPAUL OIL MARITIME has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between JAPAUL OIL time series from 2nd of May 2025 to 16th of June 2025 and 16th of June 2025 to 31st of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of JAPAUL OIL MARITIME price movement. The serial correlation of 0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current JAPAUL OIL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.08 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.19 |
JAPAUL OIL MARITIME lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is JAPAUL OIL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting JAPAUL OIL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of JAPAUL OIL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that JAPAUL OIL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
JAPAUL OIL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If JAPAUL OIL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if JAPAUL OIL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in JAPAUL OIL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
JAPAUL OIL Lagged Returns
When evaluating JAPAUL OIL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of JAPAUL OIL stock have on its future price. JAPAUL OIL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, JAPAUL OIL autocorrelation shows the relationship between JAPAUL OIL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in JAPAUL OIL MARITIME.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |