National Express Group Stock Performance

NXPGF Stock  USD 0.31  0.00  0.00%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.032, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Express' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Express is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, National Express has a negative expected return of -0.37%. Please make sure to verify National Express' standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if National Express performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days National Express Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite fragile performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow520.5 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-197.2 M
  

National Express Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  41.00  in National Express Group on October 29, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (10.00) from holding National Express Group or give up 24.39% of portfolio value over 90 days. National Express Group is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 4.0543% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 36% of traded pink sheets are less volatile than National, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon National Express is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.41 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.09 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

National Express Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of National Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.31 90 days 0.31 
about 72.53
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Express to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 72.53 (This National Express Group probability density function shows the probability of National Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon National Express has a beta of 0.032. This indicates as returns on the market go up, National Express average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Express Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Express Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   National Express Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.314.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.284.33
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.010.324.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.300.310.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Express.

National Express Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Express is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Express' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Express Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Express within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.35
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

National Express Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Express for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Express can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Express generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National Express has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
National Express has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National Express Group has accumulated 1.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.93, which is about average as compared to similar companies. National Express has a current ratio of 0.82, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Express until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Express' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Express sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Express' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 2.17 B. Net Loss for the year was (81.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 871.3 M.
Over 84.0% of National Express shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 265000 shares by David Enholm of CleanCore Solutions subject to Rule 16b-3

National Express Fundamentals Growth

National Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of National Express, and National Express fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on National Pink Sheet performance.

About National Express Performance

By analyzing National Express' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into National Express' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if National Express has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if National Express has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
National Express Group PLC engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada. National Express Group PLC was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom. National Express operates under Railroads classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange. It employs 44500 people.

Things to note about National Express performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about National Express for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for National Express help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Express generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National Express has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
National Express has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National Express Group has accumulated 1.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.93, which is about average as compared to similar companies. National Express has a current ratio of 0.82, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Express until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Express' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Express sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Express' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 2.17 B. Net Loss for the year was (81.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 871.3 M.
Over 84.0% of National Express shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 265000 shares by David Enholm of CleanCore Solutions subject to Rule 16b-3
Evaluating National Express' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate National Express' pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing National Express' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether National Express' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining National Express' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating National Express' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of National Express' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of National Express' pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into National Express' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating National Express' pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact National Express' pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for National Pink Sheet analysis

When running National Express' price analysis, check to measure National Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Express is operating at the current time. Most of National Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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