Thungela Resources Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 7.34
| TNGRF Stock | USD 7.35 0.03 0.41% |
Thungela |
Thungela Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 7.34
The tendency of Thungela Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.34 or more in 90 days |
| 7.35 | 90 days | 7.34 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thungela Resources to drop to $ 7.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Thungela Resources Limited probability density function shows the probability of Thungela Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thungela Resources price to stay between $ 7.34 and its current price of $7.35 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Thungela Resources Limited has a beta of -0.46. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Thungela Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Thungela Resources Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Thungela Resources Limited has an alpha of 0.2488, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thungela Resources Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Thungela Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thungela Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thungela Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thungela Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thungela Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thungela Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thungela Resources Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thungela Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Thungela Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thungela Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thungela Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Thungela Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
Thungela Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thungela Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thungela Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thungela Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 133.6 M |
Thungela Resources Technical Analysis
Thungela Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thungela Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thungela Resources Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thungela Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thungela Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Thungela Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Thungela Resources' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thungela Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thungela Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thungela Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thungela Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Thungela Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Thungela Pink Sheet
Thungela Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thungela Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thungela with respect to the benefits of owning Thungela Resources security.